VSI GLOBAL // ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE

OSINT-026-country-regional-study-collection

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[COUNTRY/REGION] - Collection Map

OSINT-026 Country / Regional Study - collection workspace. Central topic = the area of study. Branches = PMESII-PT variable categories + analytic framework. Drop each collected indicator as a child node; expand it with source, reading, and trend. Paste raw tool output / dataset extracts into the node’s Notes. → feeds deliverable OSINT-026. Collection logic: PIR → variable → indicator → source.

00 · Collection Plan - PIRs & EEIs

The questions this collection must answer - structured on the seven standing PIRs from §4 plus any engagement-specific add-ons. Tick each EEI when satisfied. → drives §3 Key Judgments, §4 PIRs, §17 Key Findings Summary, §21 Collection Gaps & RFIs.

PIR-1 - Political order & legitimacy (P → §6)

What is the structure, stability, and legitimacy of governance, and what are the principal contests for power?

  • EEI: governance structure, constitution, distribution of powers, federal/unitary, electoral system
  • EEI: regime nature and legitimacy - base of support, popular mandate, coercive vs. consensual
  • EEI: ruling coalition composition and principal opposition actors
  • EEI: rule of law, corruption level, and institutional capacity (WGI, TI CPI, judicial independence)
  • EEI: electoral/political calendar - upcoming votes, succession windows, transition risk
  • EEI: principal contests for power and elite fault lines (flag for OSINT-027 if depth needed)

PIR-2 - Security environment (M → §7)

What is the security situation, who are the armed/security actors, and what are the conflict dynamics and trends?

  • EEI: state security forces - composition, capability, loyalty, civil-military relations
  • EEI: non-state armed actors - identity, presence, capability, areas of control, intent
  • EEI: conflict status (active / ceasefire / latent / post-conflict) and trend
  • EEI: crime and public-safety picture - organized crime, kidnap, banditry
  • EEI: external security relationships - alliances, foreign military presence, basing agreements
  • EEI: principal escalation pathways and OCOKA terrain factors bearing on security (§12)

PIR-3 - Economic structure & health (E → §8)

What is the structure and condition of the economy, and what are its dominant dependencies and vulnerabilities?

  • EEI: sectoral composition - key industries, formal/informal split, state vs. private share
  • EEI: macroeconomic condition - GDP growth, inflation, currency, fiscal position, reserves, debt
  • EEI: trade and external dependencies - exports, imports, key partners, commodity reliance
  • EEI: employment, poverty, and inequality indicators (Gini, HDI sub-indices)
  • EEI: business and investment climate - regulatory environment, property rights, corruption
  • EEI: sanctions/capital-control regime and any restrictions relevant to client purpose

PIR-4 - Social cohesion & demographics (S → §9)

What are the demographic structure, social fault lines, and drivers of cohesion or fragmentation?

  • EEI: population size, age structure, urbanisation rate, internal migration flows
  • EEI: identity composition - ethnic, religious, linguistic, tribal/clan, class cleavages
  • EEI: principal social fault lines - which are salient, latent, or escalating
  • EEI: civil society and social movements - strength, independence, suppression
  • EEI: public sentiment and grievance - surveys, protest activity, online sentiment
  • EEI: human-development indicators - health, education, service-delivery adequacy

PIR-5 - Information environment (I-info → §10)

Who controls information, what narratives dominate, and what is the influence/disinformation picture?

  • EEI: media landscape - state vs. independent, ownership concentration, reach, press-freedom scores
  • EEI: internet and telecom penetration, censorship/blocking regime, shutdown history
  • EEI: dominant narratives and the actors contesting them
  • EEI: disinformation, propaganda, and foreign-influence operations identified
  • EEI: social-media and messaging ecosystem - dominant platforms, state surveillance/monitoring

PIR-6 - Infrastructure & systems (I-infra → §11)

What is the state and resilience of critical infrastructure and essential services?

  • EEI: energy - generation capacity, grid stability, fuel supply security
  • EEI: water and sanitation - coverage, reliability
  • EEI: transportation - roads, rail, ports, airports, key corridors relevant to client purpose
  • EEI: telecommunications backbone - redundancy, state control, reliability
  • EEI: health and food systems - capacity, nutrition, supply-chain
  • EEI: financial-system infrastructure - banking coverage, payment systems, dollarisation

PIR-7 - Trajectory & inflection (T → §13, §15, §16, §18)

Where is the environment heading over the client’s decision horizon, and what events/indicators would mark inflection?

  • EEI: political/electoral calendar dates that most shape near-term trajectory
  • EEI: economic and fiscal cycle - budget cycles, debt maturities, commodity price windows
  • EEI: seasonal factors - agricultural, climatic, fighting seasons
  • EEI: religious/cultural calendar events with political or security salience
  • EEI: historical recurrence patterns and their bearing on current trajectory
  • EEI: early-warning indicators for discontinuity events (regime collapse, conflict outbreak, economic implosion)

Engagement-specific PIRs (add per tasking)

  • EEI: [Add engagement-specific requirement - named sector / corridor / border / actor]
  • EEI:

Collection gaps / RFIs (running)

01 · Geographic & Administrative

Establish the physical and administrative frame before populating the PMESII-PT variables. → feeds §5 Operating-Environment Framing, §12 Physical Environment & Geography, Annex B App. A Area Profile.

Administrative & geographic identity

  • Country / region name:
  • Defined study bounds:
  • Area (km²) and population (census + estimate year):
  • Capital / principal cities:
  • Administrative subdivisions (type + count):
  • International memberships / treaty frameworks:

Geographic frame

  • Coordinates / bounding box:
  • Neighbouring states and relationship (friendly / hostile / contested):
  • Coastline / landlocked status:
  • Key chokepoints and lines of communication (LOCs):
  • Borders disputed / porous / fortified:

Maps and reference layers

  • [map / GIS layer reference]
    • Source / scale / date:
    • Coverage:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED, UNOSAT, OpenStreetMap, GDAM)

02 · Political & Governance

Populate the Political (P) variable for §6. Each sub-factor is one node; clone the indicator block per finding. Defer deep elite/factional mapping to OSINT-027. → feeds §6, §14 (survey), §15 Stability Drivers.

Governance structure & constitution

  • Governance type:
  • Constitutional framework (year, amendments):
  • Distribution of powers (executive / legislative / judicial):
  • Electoral system and franchise:
  • Federal / unitary / hybrid structure:
  • Source grade:

Regime legitimacy & support base

  • [indicator - e.g. election result / approval rating / protest scale]
    • Current reading:
    • Trend: [Improving / Stable / Deteriorating]
    • Source:
    • Grade (A–F / 1–6):
    • Notes / tool output: ← (Freedom House, V-Dem, Polity5, local survey data)

Ruling coalition & principal opposition

  • [actor / faction - e.g. ruling party, coalition partner, armed opposition]
    • Type: [State / Party / Military / Religious / External]
    • Role / influence:
    • Base of power:
    • Principal interests:
    • Stability contribution: [Stabilizing / Destabilizing]
    • Source grade:
    • Notes:

Rule of law, corruption, institutional capacity

  • WGI Rule of Law score (year):
  • TI CPI score (year):
  • Judicial independence assessment:
  • Corruption pattern (systemic / selective / elite / petty):
  • Source grade:

Electoral / succession calendar

  • [event - e.g. presidential election, parliamentary vote, succession window]
    • Date / window:
    • Significance to trajectory:
    • Confidence: [H/M/L]

03 · Security & Conflict

Populate the Military/Security (M) variable for §7. Apply OCOKA terrain factors from §12 where security-relevant. → feeds §7, §14 (survey), §15, §16, §18.

State security forces

  • [force - e.g. national army, national police, presidential guard, intelligence service]
    • Type: [Military / Police / Paramilitary / Intelligence]
    • Estimated strength:
    • Capability assessment:
    • Loyalty (to whom):
    • Civil-military relations posture:
    • External training / equipment:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (IISS Military Balance, ACLED, Jane’s, open order-of-battle)

Non-state armed actors

  • [group - e.g. insurgent, militia, criminal network, terror group]
    • Type: [Insurgency / Militia / Organized crime / Terrorist / Mercenary]
    • Area(s) of presence / control:
    • Estimated strength:
    • Capability:
    • Objectives / intent:
    • External backing:
    • Conflict status: [Active / Ceasefire / Latent / Post-conflict]
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED, START/GTD, UN Panel reports, UCDP)

Conflict events (recent - clone per event)

  • [incident / event - e.g. attack, battle, protest, coup attempt]
    • Date:
    • Location:
    • Actors involved:
    • Type:
    • Casualties / impact:
    • Source:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED events API, GDELT, ReliefWeb)

Crime & public-safety indicators

  • Homicide rate (per 100k, source, year):
  • Kidnap-for-ransom pattern:
  • Organized crime typology (drug / trafficking / extortion):
  • Safe zones / no-go areas:

External security relationships

  • [partner / foreign presence - e.g. alliance, basing, advisory mission, UN mission]
    • Nature:
    • Forces/capability present:
    • Impact on local dynamics:
    • Source grade:

04 · Economic & Infrastructure

Populate the Economic (E) variable for §8 and the Infrastructure (I) variable for §11. → feeds §8, §11, §15, Annex B App. A.

Macroeconomic condition

  • GDP (nominal, PPP) and per-capita (year, source):
  • GDP growth rate (current + 2-yr trend):
  • Inflation rate (CPI, year):
  • Currency and exchange-rate regime:
  • Fiscal balance (% GDP):
  • External debt / debt-to-GDP:
  • Foreign-exchange reserves (months of import cover):
  • Source grade:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (IMF WEO, World Bank WDI, central bank data)

Economic structure & key sectors

  • [sector - e.g. hydrocarbons, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, services, tourism]
    • Share of GDP (%):
    • Employment share:
    • Key vulnerabilities / dependencies:
    • Export significance:
    • Source grade:

Trade & external dependencies

  • Top-3 export commodities (% of total):
  • Top-3 import needs (% of total):
  • Principal trading partners:
  • Commodity-price sensitivity:
  • Remittance dependence (% GDP):
  • Aid dependence (% GDP):

Business & investment climate

  • World Bank Ease of Doing Business / B-READY rank:
  • Property rights / contract enforcement:
  • Capital controls in force:
  • Sanctions / financial restrictions applicable:

Critical infrastructure

Energy

  • Generation capacity (MW) and primary source (hydro / thermal / oil / gas / renewables):
  • Grid stability / outage frequency:
  • Fuel supply dependency (imported / domestic):
  • Single points of failure:

Water & sanitation

  • Coverage (urban / rural %):
  • Key system stressors:

Transportation & key corridors

  • [route / corridor / port / airport]
    • Strategic significance:
    • Condition / reliability:
    • Chokepoint risk:
    • Notes: ← (satellite imagery via Google Earth, port state reports)

Telecommunications backbone

  • Mobile penetration (%):
  • Internet penetration (%):
  • Backbone provider and state control:
  • Shutdown history:

Health & food systems

  • Hospital bed density (per 10k):
  • Food import dependency (%):
  • Acute food insecurity (IPC phase, year):

Financial-system infrastructure

  • Banking penetration (%):
  • Mobile money / fintech coverage:
  • Payment-system stability:

05 · Social & Demographic

Populate the Social (S) variable for §9. Integrate ASCOPE civil considerations (Areas/Structures/Capabilities/Organizations/People/Events) to sharpen the social picture. → feeds §9, §15.

Demographic structure

  • Total population (source, year):
  • Age structure (median age, youth bulge):
  • Urban/rural split (%):
  • Population growth rate (% pa):
  • Diaspora size and remittance significance:
  • Internal displacement (IDP count, source):

Identity composition

  • [identity group - ethnic / religious / linguistic / tribal / class]
    • Estimated size (% population):
    • Geographic distribution:
    • Political / economic status:
    • Mobilization history:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (UNHCR, census, MRG, CIA World Factbook, academic sources)

Social fault lines

  • [fault line - e.g. ethnic tension, sectarian divide, class grievance, regional disparity]
    • Salience: [Salient / Latent / Escalating / Dormant]
    • Drivers:
    • Political exploitation risk:
    • Confidence: [H/M/L]

Civil society & social movements

  • [organization / movement]
    • Type: [NGO / Religious institution / Union / Movement / Media outlet]
    • Role and reach:
    • State relationship (tolerated / suppressed / co-opted):
    • Significance to stability:

Public sentiment & grievance

  • [indicator - e.g. survey finding, protest event, social-media sentiment shift]
    • Source / method:
    • Reading:
    • Trend:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (Afrobarometer, Arab Barometer, ACLED protest data, CrowdTangle)

Human development & services

  • HDI rank and score (year):
  • Literacy rate (%):
  • Under-5 mortality (per 1k):
  • Social-service delivery adequacy (education / health / welfare):

06 · Key Actors & Entities

Survey-level map of principal actors - state, security, economic, social-religious, external. Each is a clonable block. Deep power-network and patronage flows → escalate to OSINT-027. → feeds §14 Key Actors & Power Map (Survey), §15 Stability Drivers.

Government & ruling coalition actors

  • [actor - e.g. head of state, ruling party, key ministry]
    • Type: [State / Party / Ruling coalition]
    • Role / title:
    • Base of power:
    • Principal interests:
    • Key relationships:
    • Stability orientation: [Stabilizing / Destabilizing / Ambiguous]
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (government websites, Factiva, GovTrack, news archives)

Opposition & challenger actors

  • [actor]
    • Type: [Parliamentary / Extra-parliamentary / Armed / Civic]
    • Strength / reach:
    • Principal interests:
    • Key relationships:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes:

Security & military actors

  • [actor - e.g. defence minister, service chief, militia commander]
    • Type: [State military / Police / Intelligence / Non-state armed]
    • Influence over security forces:
    • Loyalty:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes:

Economic power-holders

  • [actor - e.g. oligarch, conglomerate, state enterprise chief, central bank head]
    • Sector(s) of influence:
    • Relationship to political power:
    • Sanctions/PEP screening: [Clear / Hit / Near-match]
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (OpenCorporates, national company registries, sanctions lists)

Religious & social leaders

  • [actor]
    • Denomination / affiliation:
    • Reach and influence:
    • Political alignment:
    • Source grade:

External state & non-state actors

  • [actor - e.g. neighbouring state, major power, international organisation, diaspora network]
    • Type: [Foreign state / IO / NGO / Diaspora / MNC]
    • Interests in the area:
    • Mechanisms of influence:
    • Current posture:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes:

07 · Legal & Regulatory Environment

Covers rule-of-law quality, applicable international legal frameworks, sanctions regime, and the regulatory environment relevant to client purpose. → feeds §6 Political (rule of law sub-factor), §8 Economic (business climate), §21 Gaps, §22 Recommendations.

  • Constitutional / legal tradition:
  • Judicial independence (V-Dem, WGI):
  • Property-rights protection:
  • Contract-enforcement reliability:
  • Expropriation / nationalisation risk:

Sanctions & export-control regime

  • US (OFAC SDN / CAPTA / sectoral): [Clear / Hit / Restricted sector]
  • EU (consolidated list / sectoral):
  • UN (Security Council lists):
  • UK / other bilateral:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (OFAC SDN search, EU sanctions map, UN Consolidated List)

Regulatory environment relevant to client purpose

  • Sector-specific regulation:
  • Licensing / permit requirements:
  • Foreign-ownership restrictions:
  • Currency / capital-control regulations:
  • Data-protection / privacy laws applicable:
  • Key treaties in force (trade / security / human rights):
  • ICC / ICJ membership and compliance:
  • AML/CFT FATF status: [Compliant / Grey list / Black list]

08 · Indicators & Events

Temporal, trajectory, and early-warning layer. Each indicator is a clonable block. → feeds §13 Time & Temporal Dynamics, §16 Trajectory & Watch Indicators, §18 Discontinuity & Early-Warning Indicators, Annex B App. D & E.

Political / electoral calendar events

  • [event - e.g. election, referendum, budget vote, succession]
    • Date / window:
    • Stakes:
    • Risk window: [Elevated / Moderate / Low]
    • Watch indicator:
    • Notes:

Economic / fiscal cycle events

  • [event - e.g. debt maturity, IMF review, budget announcement, commodity-price shock]
    • Date / trigger:
    • Fiscal significance:
    • Vulnerability exposure:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (IMF country reports, central bank calendar, Bloomberg)

Seasonal factors

  • [factor - e.g. harvest season, fighting season, flood / drought window, hurricane season]
    • Period:
    • Historical pattern:
    • Current year projection:

Religious / cultural calendar

  • [event - e.g. major religious observance, national day, sensitive anniversary]
    • Date:
    • Mobilisation / protest risk:
    • Historical incidents:

Discontinuity / early-warning indicators

Observable signals of step-change. Clone per indicator; tie to §18 register. Each fires a severity (Crit / High / Med / Low) and a disposition action.

  • [indicator - e.g. military deployment near capital, currency free-fall, mass-protest outbreak]
    • Variable (§):
    • Severity if triggered: [Crit / High / Med / Low]
    • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Present]
    • Threshold for escalation:
    • Disposition: [Watch / Escalate / Route to OSINT-027/028/029 / Risk-product trigger]
    • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED alerts, GDELT news, UN OCHA sitreps, social-media monitoring)

Historical recurrence patterns

  • [pattern - e.g. post-election violence cycle, annual coup-risk window, seasonal unrest]
    • Period/trigger:
    • Last occurrence:
    • Current-cycle comparison:

09 · Sources & Media Landscape

Maps the information environment (PMESII-PT “I” variable) and the sourcing landscape for collection purposes. → feeds §10 Information (I), §23 Annex A - Sources & Methodology.

Media landscape

  • [outlet / broadcaster / platform]
    • Type: [State / Independent / Partisan / Foreign / Online-only]
    • Ownership / editorial control:
    • Reach (audience size / penetration):
    • Press-freedom status:
    • Reliability (A–F):
    • Notes:

Internet & telecommunications control

  • Censorship / blocking regime (RSF, Freedom on the Net score):
  • Known blocked sites / platforms:
  • Shutdown incidents (last 3 years):
  • State surveillance infrastructure:

Dominant narratives & disinformation

  • [narrative / influence operation]
    • Origin / sponsor:
    • Reach and impact:
    • Corroborating/contradicting evidence:
    • Notes / tool output: ← (DFRLab, EUDisinfo, Stanford Internet Observatory, CrowdTangle)

Social-media & messaging ecosystem

  • Dominant platforms (ranked by active users):
  • State-linked / suppressed accounts:
  • Key hashtags / channels:
  • Protest / coordination infrastructure online:

Collection source landscape (for analyst use)

Which source types are accessible, reliable, and current for this area. Grade each.

  • [source type - e.g. official stats bureau, academic institution, think-tank, NGO, wire service]
    • Reliability (A–F) / Credibility (1–6):
    • Coverage period / currency:
    • Access (open / licensed / restricted):
    • Self-interest / bias caveat:
    • Notes:

99 · Collection Admin

Working register - the audit trail behind the deliverable. Not a deliverable section itself; all material flows into §23 Annex A and Annex B App. G.

Source register

Every material datum must be traceable to a graded source. A–F reliability × 1–6 credibility = two-character Admiralty code (e.g., B2).

  • [S-1 - source name / title]
    • Type: [Primary / Secondary / Tertiary]
    • Format: [Official / Academic / NGO / Commercial dataset / Media / HUMINT]
    • Reliability (A–F):
    • Credibility (1–6):
    • As-of / access date:
    • URL / reference:
    • Coverage scope:
    • Self-interest / limitation caveat:

Evidence archive

  • [capture ref - screenshot / dataset export / document - + hash + URL + timestamp]:

ACH evidence log (→ §19)

  • [evidence item]
    • H1 (stable / continuity): [C / I / N]
    • H2 (deteriorates / escalation): [C / I / N]
    • H3 (improves / de-escalation): [C / I / N]
    • Notes:

KAC assumptions register (→ §20)

  • [assumption - e.g. official economic statistics are directionally reliable]
    • Basis:
    • Confidence: [H/M/L]
    • Impact if wrong:
    • Linchpin: [Y/N]

Open gaps / verification pending (→ §21)

  • [item outstanding - variable / source / indicator]
    • Gap type: [Access / Language / Data-quality / Depth (→ OSINT-027/028/029)]
    • Impact on assessment:
    • Recommended collection:
    • Escalation target:
    • Priority: [H/M/L]

Running RFIs

  • [RFI text] → routed to [product / collector / date]

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