VSI GLOBAL // ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE

OSINT-029-intelligence-estimate-collection

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Intelligence Estimate - Collection Map

OSINT-029 Intelligence Estimate - collection workspace. Central topic = the estimative question / topic under assessment. Branches = data-point categories for a bounded, forward-looking predictive assessment structured to produce decision-relevant estimative judgments with likelihood and analytic confidence stated separately. Drop each collected value as a child node; expand with where it was found and what it links to. Paste raw tool output into the node’s Notes. → feeds deliverable OSINT-029.

00 · Collection Plan - PIRs & EEIs

The questions this collection must answer. Each EEI maps to a key variable, driver, or judgment section in the deliverable. Tick as satisfied. → drives §3 Key Judgments, §4 PIRs, §7 Key Variables, §8 Evidence Mapping, §9 Most Likely Outcome, §10 Alternatives, §11 Warning Indicators, §12 Verified Findings, §16 Collection Gaps.

PIR-1 - Variable / Driver 1 (disposition of principal actors)

  • EEI: current posture of key actor(s) toward the estimative outcome - stated vs. revealed preference
  • EEI: recent decisions, statements, or actions signalling trajectory
  • EEI: internal cohesion / elite alignment or fracture signals

PIR-2 - Variable / Driver 2 (structural / economic / security conditions)

  • EEI: current reading and trajectory of the dominant structural variable
  • EEI: threshold or stress indicators (economic shock, security incident, institutional failure)
  • EEI: rate-of-change vs. prior baseline (from OSINT-026-country-regional-study)

PIR-3 - Variable / Driver 3 (external actor posture / international pressure)

  • EEI: external actors with material influence on the outcome - current posture
  • EEI: sanctions regime, diplomatic pressure, covert support signals
  • EEI: multilateral / regional-body positions

PIR-4 - Threshold Event Indicator

  • EEI: the single event or decision whose occurrence would most shift the outcome
  • EEI: leading indicators that the threshold event is approaching or has been triggered
  • EEI: tripwire signals in public / semi-public domain

PIR-5 - Timing Indicator

  • EEI: the electoral, constitutional, economic, or operational calendar most relevant to the horizon
  • EEI: pace / acceleration signals - is the environment moving faster or slower than base-line assumed?
  • EEI: windows of opportunity or constraint within the decision horizon

Collection gaps / RFIs (running)

01 · Drivers & Key Variables

The forces whose movement most determines which outcome path the future takes. Each variable is assessed on current reading, trajectory, and indicator set. → feeds §7 Key Variables, Drivers & Indicators; Appendix A Variable & Driver Scorecard.

Variable / Driver register

Clone one block per variable. Name all variables that appear in §7.

  • [variable - e.g. Regime cohesion / succession dynamic]
    • Current reading (H/M/L stress):
    • Direction of travel: [Deteriorating / Stable / Improving]
    • Key indicator(s) to watch:
    • Threshold: [what reading / event would change outcome assessment]
    • Source(s) / grade:
    • Confidence in reading: [H/M/L]
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [variable - e.g. Economic stress / shock vulnerability]
    • Current reading:
    • Direction of travel:
    • Key indicator(s):
    • Threshold:
    • Source(s) / grade:
    • Confidence:
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [variable - e.g. External actor posture / pressure]
    • Current reading:
    • Direction of travel:
    • Key indicator(s):
    • Threshold:
    • Source(s) / grade:
    • Confidence:
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [variable - e.g. Public sentiment / social mobilisation]
    • Current reading:
    • Direction of travel:
    • Key indicator(s):
    • Threshold:
    • Source(s) / grade:
    • Confidence:
    • Notes / tool output: ← social-listening tools, protest/event trackers, ACLED
  • [variable - e.g. Security situation / armed-actor dynamics]
    • Current reading:
    • Direction of travel:
    • Key indicator(s):
    • Threshold:
    • Source(s) / grade:
    • Confidence:
    • Notes / tool output: ← ACLED, UCDP, OCHA, Jane’s

Dominant / linchpin variable identification

  • Dominant driver (the one that most determines the outcome):
  • Threshold / pivotal variable (whose crossing a line changes everything):

02 · Indicators & Warnings

Observable signals that movement is occurring toward a particular outcome path. Distinct from PIR indicators - these are early-warning triggers for re-estimation. → feeds §8 Evidence Mapping & Diagnostic Indicators; §11 Warning & Change Indicators; Appendix F Indicator & Warning Register.

Warning indicator register

Clone one block per indicator. Include both confirming and disconfirming indicators for H1.

  • [indicator - e.g. Regime arrest of prominent opposition figure]
    • Observable via: [media / official statement / court filing / NGO report / social media]
    • Hypothesis it tests: [H1 / H2 / H3]
    • Consistency with H1: [C / I / N]
    • Consistency with H2: [C / I / N]
    • Consistency with H3: [C / I / N]
    • Severity if triggered: [Critical / High / Medium / Low]
    • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Present]
    • Recommended action: [Watch / Escalate / Re-estimate / Notify client]
    • Source grade: [A–F / 1–6]
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [indicator - e.g. Significant currency / reserves movement]
    • Observable via:
    • Hypothesis:
    • Consistency H1/H2/H3:
    • Severity:
    • Status:
    • Action:
    • Source grade:
    • Notes / tool output: ← central bank data, Bloomberg/Reuters feeds, IMF trackers
  • [indicator - e.g. Military / security-force repositioning or alert-level change]
    • Observable via:
    • Hypothesis:
    • Severity:
    • Status:
    • Action:
    • Notes / tool output: ← satellite imagery (Planet, Maxar), military-tracker accounts
  • [indicator - e.g. Elite defection or public dissociation from regime/actor]
    • Observable via:
    • Severity:
    • Status:
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [indicator - DISCONFIRMING for H1 - signals estimate may be wrong]
    • Observable via:
    • Hypothesis:
    • Severity: [Critical - triggers re-estimation if confirmed]
    • Status:
    • Notes / tool output:

Red-flag / deception indicators

Signals of deliberate information manipulation or emerging dynamic not in current variable set.

  • [red flag - e.g. Coordinated narrative shift in state media]
    • Type: [Deliberate deception / Information manipulation / Emerging dynamic / Disconfirming evidence]
    • Signals:
    • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Confirmed]
    • Severity:
    • Notes: ← DFRLab, EU DisinfoLab, Logically, CrowdTangle-style monitoring

03 · Scenarios / Hypotheses

The competing outcome paths tested by the ACH. H1 = most likely; H2 = principal alternative; H3 = less likely but high-impact. Each scenario has trigger conditions, likelihood, and watch indicators. → feeds §9 Most Likely Outcome; §10 Alternative Outcomes; §14 ACH; §15 KAC.

H1 - Most Likely Outcome

  • Description:
  • Likelihood term (ICD 203):
  • Analytic confidence: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
  • Principal drivers supporting it:
  • Most diagnostic evidence:
  • Key uncertainties remaining:
  • What would overturn it (disconfirming evidence):
  • Notes:

H2 - Principal Alternative Outcome

  • Description:
  • Likelihood term (ICD 203):
  • Analytic confidence:
  • Trigger conditions:
  • Watch indicators:
  • Notes:

H3 - Most Dangerous / High-Impact Alternative

  • Description:
  • Likelihood term (ICD 203):
  • Analytic confidence:
  • Trigger conditions:
  • Watch indicators:
  • Notes:

Additional scenarios (if needed)

  • [scenario - e.g. Most favorable outcome]
    • Description:
    • Likelihood:
    • Triggers:

Scenario comparison notes

  • Dominant discriminating evidence (most diagnostic across hypotheses):
  • ACH summary (most consistent hypothesis + rationale):
  • KAC linchpin assumption most likely to fail:

04 · Data Sources & Feeds

Every source used to collect evidence for the variable set and indicator monitoring. Each source is assessed for reliability, cadence, coverage, and self-interest risk. → feeds §18 Annex A Sources & Methodology; Appendix G Full Source Register.

Source register (cloneable)

Clone one block per material source. Apply Admiralty two-axis grade.

  • [source - e.g. Reuters / AP / AFP wire]
    • Type: [Newswire / Academic / Official / NGO / Commercial dataset / Social media / In-country]
    • Reliability grade (A–F):
    • Credibility grade (1–6):
    • Self-interest / bias caveat:
    • Coverage scope:
    • Currency / last accessed:
    • Notes:
  • [source - e.g. IMF Article IV / World Bank data]
    • Type: [Multilateral / Official statistics]
    • Reliability grade:
    • Credibility grade:
    • Self-interest caveat: [Official - corroborate against independent sources]
    • Coverage scope:
    • Currency:
    • Notes: ← IMF WEO, World Bank Open Data, UN Stats
  • [source - e.g. Local/state media]
    • Type: [State-controlled media]
    • Reliability grade:
    • Credibility grade:
    • Self-interest caveat: [Treat as potentially self-interested - corroborate]
    • Coverage scope:
    • Notes:
  • [source - e.g. NGO / human-rights reporting]
    • Type: [NGO / Advocacy]
    • Reliability grade:
    • Credibility grade:
    • Self-interest caveat:
    • Coverage scope:
    • Notes: ← Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, ICG, Freedom House
  • [source - e.g. Commercial conflict/events dataset]
    • Type: [Commercial dataset]
    • Reliability grade:
    • Credibility grade:
    • Coverage scope:
    • Cadence:
    • Notes: ← ACLED, UCDP, Jane’s, Oxford Analytica, Control Risks, Verisk Maplecroft

Base-line products consumed

Analytic framework / SATs applied

  • Driver analysis:
  • Indicator framework:
  • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH):
  • Key Assumptions Check (KAC):
  • Scenario analysis:
  • Other SATs:

05 · Key Actors & Entities

The actors (individuals, institutions, factions, states, armed groups) whose decisions or actions most shape the outcome. Clone one block per actor. Each is assessed for interest, capability, and likely behaviour within the decision horizon. → feeds §7 Key Variables (actor-dimension); §14 ACH; Appendix E Actor & Institution Index.

Key actor register

Clone per actor. Include principals, swing actors, external influencers, spoiler actors.

  • [actor - e.g. Head of state / ruling faction]
    • Role / function:
    • Interest relative to outcome: [Pro H1 / Pro H2 / Ambiguous]
    • Capability to influence outcome: [High / Medium / Low]
    • Current trajectory / recent signals:
    • Relationship to other key actors:
    • Source basis for assessment:
    • Attribution confidence: [Confirmed / Probable / Possible]
    • Notes / tool output:
  • [actor - e.g. Opposition / challenger faction]
    • Role / function:
    • Interest:
    • Capability:
    • Trajectory:
    • Notes:
  • [actor - e.g. Security/military leadership]
    • Role / function:
    • Interest:
    • Capability:
    • Trajectory:
    • Notes: ← ISS, Jane’s, IISS Military Balance, Oryx
  • [actor - e.g. External state actor]
    • Role / function:
    • Interest:
    • Capability:
    • Trajectory:
    • Notes:
  • [actor - e.g. International / multilateral body]
    • Role / function:
    • Interest:
    • Capability:
    • Trajectory:
    • Notes:

Actor network summary

  • Coalitions / alignments:
  • Key swing actor (whose decision breaks the tie):
  • Spoiler actors (capable of disrupting H1 path):

06 · Events Timeline

Chronological record of events relevant to the estimative question - from baseline period through the collection window. Each event is rated for its diagnostic weight on the hypothesis set. → feeds §6 Historical Context & Base-Line Conditions; §8 Evidence Mapping; Appendix D Key-Data Chronology.

Timeline entry register

Clone per event. Anchor to date; note diagnostic weight.

  • [YYYY-MM-DD - event description]
    • Category: [Political / Economic / Security / Diplomatic / Social / Legal-regulatory]
    • Hypothesis weight: [Consistent with H1 / Consistent with H2 / Neutral / Ambiguous]
    • Diagnostic weight: [High / Medium / Low]
    • Source / grade:
    • Notes:
  • [YYYY-MM-DD - event]
    • Category:
    • Hypothesis weight:
    • Diagnostic weight:
    • Source / grade:
    • Notes:
  • [YYYY-MM-DD - anticipated event within decision horizon]
    • Category:
    • Type: [Calendar-anchored / Contingent / Unknown-timing]
    • Significance:
    • Watch notes:

Timeline period markers

  • Baseline as-of date (from OSINT-026-country-regional-study or equivalent):
  • Estimate as-of date:
  • Decision horizon end date:
  • Key calendar events within horizon (elections, budget, treaty deadline, etc.):

07 · Assumptions & Uncertainties

The assumptions underpinning the estimative judgment and the uncertainties that bound it. Linchpin assumptions are flagged - their failure would collapse H1 and require re-estimation. → feeds §15 Key Assumptions Check (KAC); §17.1 Overall Assessment.

Key assumptions register

Clone per assumption. Flag linchpin status.

  • [assumption - e.g. Base-line country/regional study remains directionally accurate over horizon]
    • Basis for assumption:
    • Confidence assumption holds: [H/M/L]
    • Impact if assumption proves wrong:
    • Linchpin (would collapse H1 if wrong)?: [Y/N]
    • Observable test (how would we know it is failing?):
    • Notes:
  • [assumption - e.g. Key actor behaves rationally per stated interests]
    • Basis:
    • Confidence:
    • Impact if wrong:
    • Linchpin?:
    • Test:
    • Notes:
  • [assumption - e.g. No major exogenous shock (conflict, sanctions, natural disaster, pandemic)]
    • Basis:
    • Confidence:
    • Impact if wrong:
    • Linchpin?:
    • Test:
    • Notes:
  • [assumption - e.g. Indicator set is adequate to detect material movement in key variable]
    • Basis:
    • Confidence:
    • Impact if wrong:
    • Linchpin?:
    • Notes:

Key uncertainties

Coverage & confidence assessment (product-level)

  • Coverage confidence: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
  • Coverage notes (access, language, contested space):
  • Overall estimate confidence: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
  • Confidence basis:

99 · Collection Admin

Working register - audit trail behind the estimate. Not a deliverable section.

Source register (graded - Admiralty two-axis)

Every material datum traceable to a graded source. Master list; entries above carry detail.

  • [S-1 - source name / title]
    • Type: [Primary / Secondary / Tertiary]
    • Reliability (A–F):
    • Credibility (1–6):
    • Date accessed:
    • Self-interest caveat:
  • [S-2]
    • Type:
    • Reliability:
    • Credibility:
    • Date accessed:

Evidence archive

  • [capture ref - screenshot / PDF / URL + hash + timestamp]:
  • [capture ref]:

Open gaps / RFIs (running)

Perishability & re-estimation triggers

Graph View