OSINT-031-country-risk-assessment-collection

[COUNTRY / REGION] - Collection Map

OSINT-031 Country Risk Assessment - collection workspace. Central topic = the country or region under assessment. Branches = data-point categories across seven risk domains (Political, Security, Economic, Regulatory/Legal, Operational/Infrastructure, Societal, Environmental) plus the consolidated register and trajectory. Drop each collected indicator as a child node; expand it with the source, grade, and what risk sub-score it bears on. Paste raw tool/dataset output into the node’s Notes. → feeds deliverable OSINT-031. Collection logic: PIR → risk-domain → indicator → source. Confirm EEIs before drafting domain scores.

00 · Collection Plan - PIRs & EEIs

The eight PIRs that drive this product. Tick each EEI as satisfied. All PIRs map to §4 PIRs, §3 Key Judgments, §13 Consolidated Risk Register, and §14 Overall Country Risk Rating & Trajectory. Open gaps route to §20 Collection Gaps & RFIs.

PIR-1 - Political & Governance Risk

What is the likelihood and client impact of political instability, policy/leadership change, expropriation, or governance breakdown over the horizon? → §6 Political & Governance Risk, §3 KJ-1/KJ-4, §4 PIR-1.

• EEI: Regime type, stability, and transfer-of-power mechanism documented
• EEI: Scheduled elections / succession events identified within the horizon
• EEI: Expropriation, nationalisation, or forced-localisation precedents or signals
• EEI: Rule-of-law and institutional-capacity indicators (court independence, press freedom, TI CPI)
• EEI: Corruption-exposure pathways for the client’s sector and operating modality

PIR-2 - Security & Safety Risk

What is the threat to the client’s people and assets from conflict, terrorism, violent crime, civil unrest, and targeted threats? → §7 Security & Safety Risk, §3 KJ-2/KJ-3, §4 PIR-2.

• EEI: Active conflict zones and spillover corridors mapped
• EEI: Terrorism threat actors, TTPs, and recent incident data (ACLED/GTD/OSAC)
• EEI: Violent-crime and kidnap-for-ransom prevalence (UNODC, OSAC, in-country advisers)
• EEI: Civil-unrest history, triggers, and current mobilisation signals
• EEI: Threats specifically targeting foreign interests, client’s sector, or known client footprint

PIR-3 - Economic & Financial Risk

What is the exposure to currency, capital-control, sovereign/financial, inflation, and macro-shock risk? → §8 Economic & Financial Risk, §4 PIR-3.

• EEI: FX regime, convertibility restrictions, and capital-control history
• EEI: Sovereign credit ratings and debt-sustainability indicators (IMF, World Bank)
• EEI: Inflation trend and macro-shock sensitivity (commodity dependence, external debt)
• EEI: Banking-system health and counterparty risk indicators
• EEI: Payment, repatriation, and profit-transfer conditions

PIR-4 - Regulatory, Legal & Compliance Risk

What is the exposure to sanctions, adverse regulatory change, contract-enforcement failure, and corruption-driven compliance risk? → §9 Regulatory, Legal & Compliance Risk, §4 PIR-4.

• EEI: Active sanctions regimes bearing on country or counterparties (OFAC/EU/UN/UK)
• EEI: Export-control and dual-use restrictions relevant to client’s activities
• EEI: Contract-enforcement record and dispute-resolution mechanism quality
• EEI: FCPA/UKBA corruption exposure in the client’s sector and procurement environment
• EEI: Data-protection, licensing, tax, and customs obligations flagged

PIR-5 - Operational & Infrastructure Risk

What is the risk to operations from infrastructure failure, service disruption, movement constraints, and single-points-of-failure? → §10 Operational & Infrastructure Risk, §4 PIR-5.

• EEI: Power, water, and utilities reliability and outage frequency
• EEI: Telecom and internet connectivity resilience (latency, outage, censorship)
• EEI: Transport, port, and movement-access constraints documented
• EEI: Supply, fuel, and essential-services dependency and single-points-of-failure mapped
• EEI: Medical and health-system adequacy for client’s personnel profile

PIR-6 - Societal & Human-Environment Risk

What is the risk from social fault lines, unrest, labour, public sentiment toward the client/foreign interests, and information-environment threats? → §11 Societal & Human-Environment Risk, §4 PIR-6.

• EEI: Social-unrest history, labour-dispute frequency, and current mobilisation indicators
• EEI: Public and community sentiment toward the client’s sector or foreign interests
• EEI: Ethnic, sectarian, or communal tensions bearing on the client’s footprint
• EEI: Disinformation, hostile narrative, or hostile-media targeting of the client’s sector
• EEI: Social-licence and community-relations risk in operational areas

PIR-7 - Environmental & Natural-Hazard Risk

What is the exposure to natural hazards, climate stress, and environmental events that could affect people, assets, or continuity? → §12 Environmental & Natural-Hazard Risk, §4 PIR-7.

• EEI: Natural-hazard exposure (seismic, flood, storm, wildfire, volcanic) mapped
• EEI: Climate-stress and chronic-degradation trends relevant to the horizon
• EEI: Pandemic/public-health baseline and outbreak history
• EEI: Industrial/CBRN incident exposure for the client’s sector and locations

PIR-8 - Trajectory & Inflection

Where is overall risk heading over the horizon, and what events/indicators would mark a step-change in the rating? → §14 Overall Country Risk Rating & Trajectory, §16 Risk-Escalation & Early-Warning Indicators, §3 KJ-5.

• EEI: Structural drivers of risk change identified (elections, debt deadlines, conflict phasing)
• EEI: Proximate escalation/de-escalation signals confirmed or absent
• EEI: Most dangerous (rating step-up) pathway characterised with its key tripwires
• EEI: Most likely trajectory characterised with confidence stated

Collection gaps / RFIs (running)

• [open gap] → route to §20 Collection Gaps & RFIs
• [RFI item] → escalate to [OSINT-026 Country/Regional Study / in-country HUMINT / sibling product]

01 · Geographic & Administrative

Country/region orientation and administrative facts - the fixed-frame on which all risk is anchored. → §2 Executive Summary & Scope (geographic bounds), §5 Risk Framing (geographic/administrative bounds), §22 Annex A.

Scope definition

• Country / sub-national bounds defined:
• Jurisdiction(s) in scope:
• Capital and major urban centres:
• Contested or disputed territories relevant to client:

Administrative structure

• Government tier / federal/unitary structure:
• Sub-national authorities with bearing on client:
• Special economic zones or designated areas:

Population & demographic overview

• Population (total / at-risk area):
• Ethnic / linguistic / religious composition (headline):
• Urbanisation rate and trend:

Geographic features bearing on risk

• Border countries and permeability:
• Strategic chokepoints, ports, corridors:
• Terrain factors bearing on security / operational risk (OCOKA):

02 · Political & Governance

Collect raw data for scoring §6 Political & Governance Risk. Every indicator links to a sub-risk row in the §6 table. → §6 Political & Governance Risk, §3 KJ-1/KJ-4, §14 domain summary.

Regime type & stability

• Regime classification:
• Incumbent leader / ruling party:
• Effective governing coalition / power centres:
• Political-stability index (World Bank WGI or equivalent):

Transfer-of-power & election risk

• Next scheduled election(s) / succession event:
• Credibility of electoral process:
• Historical precedent for peaceful transfer:
• Contested legitimacy indicators:

Expropriation & policy-change risk

• [precedent / signal - e.g. nationalisation decree, forced-local-partner rule]
  • Date / sector:
  • Compensation / outcome:
  • Relevance to client:
  • Source grade:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (ICSID, Oxford Analytica, EIU)
• [precedent 2]

Rule-of-law & institutional capacity

• Judicial independence rating:
• World Bank Control of Corruption percentile:
• Press-freedom index (RSF/CPJ):
• Functioning of legislature / oversight bodies:

Corruption exposure (client-specific)

• TI Corruption Perceptions Index:
• Sector-specific bribery vectors:
• Known public-procurement risk in client’s sector:

03 · Security & Conflict

Collect raw data for scoring §7 Security & Safety Risk. Map incidents to sub-risk rows. → §7 Security & Safety Risk, §3 KJ-2/KJ-3.

Conflict & armed-group landscape

• [armed group / conflict party - e.g. insurgency, militia, state-actor]
  • AO / area of operations:
  • Current posture / activity level:
  • Threat to client’s sector / footprint:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Source grade:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED, UCDP, Jane’s, ISS Africa, IISS)
• [party 2]

Terrorism & targeted-violence incidents

• [incident - date / location / actor / method / target]
  • Bearing on client:
  • Source:
  • Notes: ← (GTD, TRAC, START, OSAC)
• [incident 2]

Crime & kidnap-for-ransom

• National homicide / violent-crime rate (UNODC):
• KFR prevalence and active groups (domain-level only):
• Acquisitive crime targeting foreigners / corporates:

Civil unrest

• [event - date / trigger / scale / duration]
  • Outcome / current status:
  • Source:
• [event 2]

Threats targeting client / sector / foreign interests

• [specific threat indicator]:
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]

04 · Economic & Financial

Collect raw data for scoring §8 Economic & Financial Risk. → §8 Economic & Financial Risk, §4 PIR-3.

FX, convertibility & capital controls

• Currency / FX regime:
• Current rate / trend:
• Capital-control restrictions (in/out):
• Convertibility risk signal:
• Source: ← (IMF, World Bank, central-bank publications, FX data APIs)

Sovereign & banking health

• Sovereign credit rating (Moody’s / S&P / Fitch):
• Debt-to-GDP ratio and trend:
• IMF programme status:
• Banking-system NPL ratio / systemic risk indicators:

Macro indicators

• GDP growth rate (actual / forecast):
• Inflation rate (CPI) and trend:
• Unemployment rate:
• Commodity dependence (primary export):
• Current-account balance / reserve position:

Payment & repatriation

• Known payment delay or default precedent:
• Profit-repatriation restrictions:
• Client’s counterparty payment-risk assessment:

04b · Operational & Infrastructure

Collect raw data for scoring §10 Operational & Infrastructure Risk. Map each failure mode to the sub-risk row in the §10 table. → §10 Operational & Infrastructure Risk, §4 PIR-5.

Power, water & utilities

• [utility / service - e.g. national grid, water utility]
  • Reliability rating / outage frequency:
  • Known single-points-of-failure:
  • Bearing on client’s operations:
  • Source: ← (World Bank, national regulator, USAID infrastructure reports)
  • Notes / tool output:
• [utility 2]

Telecom, IT & connectivity

• Internet penetration / reliability (latency, outage rate):
• Censorship / VPN restrictions bearing on client:
• Mobile coverage in client’s operating area:
• Source: ← (GSMA, ITU, NetBlocks, national regulator)

Transport, ports & movement

• Key transport arteries / bottlenecks:
• Port and border-crossing reliability:
• Movement-access constraints for client (permits, restricted areas):
• Source: ← (OECD, national transport ministry, Control Risks)

Supply chain & essential services

• Supply / fuel dependency and source:
• Essential-services availability in client’s area:
• Known single-points-of-failure (SPOFs):
• Source:

Medical & health-system adequacy

• Hospital / clinic access in client’s operating area:
• Emergency medical evacuation routes:
• Public-health baseline (prevalent diseases, vaccination requirements):
• Source: ← (OSAC, CDC, WHO country office, ISOS)

05 · Societal & Demographic

Background social data for scoring §11 Societal & Human-Environment Risk. → §11 Societal & Human-Environment Risk, §4 PIR-6.

Social-unrest indicators

• Historical unrest episodes (last 5 years):
• Current mobilisation signals (social media, labour calendar):
• Grievance drivers (economic, political, sectarian):

Sentiment toward foreign / client interests

• General public sentiment toward foreigners / FDI:
• Sector-specific perception (industry opposition, NGO activity):
• Recent media or activist narratives targeting client’s sector:

Communal & sectarian fault lines

• Principal fault lines relevant to operating area:
• Tension level and trend:
• Bearing on client’s footprint:

Information environment

• State-media dominance / press pluralism:
• Active disinformation campaigns bearing on client:
• Social-media censorship / VPN restrictions:

05b · Environmental & Natural-Hazard

Collect raw data for scoring §12 Environmental & Natural-Hazard Risk. Map each hazard to its sub-risk row in the §12 table. → §12 Environmental & Natural-Hazard Risk, §4 PIR-7.

Natural-hazard exposure

• [hazard type - e.g. seismic / flood / storm / wildfire / volcanic]
  • Exposure level (Low / Moderate / High):
  • Frequency / historical record:
  • Bearing on client’s footprint:
  • Source: ← (UNDRR, USGS, national disaster agency, Swiss Re NatCat)
  • Notes / tool output:
• [hazard 2]

Climate stress & chronic degradation

• Chronic climate stressors (drought, sea-level rise, desertification):
• Trend over assessment horizon:
• Bearing on operations / supply chain:
• Source: ← (IPCC, World Bank Climate Portal, ND-GAIN Index)

Pandemic & public-health exposure

• Prevalent/outbreak-risk diseases in operating area:
• Vaccination / prophylaxis requirements:
• Health-system surge capacity (pandemic context):
• Source: ← (WHO, CDC, ECDC, national MOH)

Industrial & CBRN incident exposure

• Known industrial hazard sites near client footprint:
• CBRN incident history in country / sector:
• Regulatory oversight of hazardous industries:
• Source:

06 · Key Actors & Entities

Recurring clonable block - seed one per actor type. Actors include: government ministries, regulatory bodies, threat actors, civil-society groups, labour federations, influential media, key commercial counterparties. → §6–§11 (risk sub-tables), §4 PIRs, §15 Key Findings.

[Government ministry / regulatory body - e.g. Ministry of Mines]

Clone per entity. → feeds whichever domain risk sub-row this actor drives.

• [entity name - e.g. Ministry of Natural Resources]
  • Role bearing on client:
  • Key officials:
  • Current posture / signalled intent:
  • Relationship with client (if any):
  • Registry / official source: ← (OpenCorporates, national business registry, official gazette)
  • Notes / tool output:
• [entity 2]

[Threat actor / armed group / criminal organisation]

Clone per group. → feeds §7 Security sub-risk rows.

• [group name - e.g. insurgent group / criminal network]
  • Capacity and intent (toward client):
  • AO overlap with client:
  • Recent activity:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Source grade:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED, Jane’s, TRAC, OSAC, public-record court filings)
• [group 2]

[Civil-society / labour / NGO actor]

Clone per actor. → feeds §11 Societal risk sub-risk rows.

• [organisation name]
  • Stance toward client’s sector:
  • Mobilisation capacity:
  • Recent actions:
  • Notes / tool output:
• [organisation 2]

[Commercial counterparty / supplier / JV partner]

Clone per entity. → feeds §8 Economic and §9 Regulatory risk rows.

• [entity name]
  • Ownership / UBO (if ascertainable):
  • Sanctions screen result: ← (OFAC SDN, EU consolidated, UN, UK FCDO)
  • Financial health indicators: ← (OpenCorporates, Orbis/BvD, Dun & Bradstreet)
  • Adverse media:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Notes / tool output:
• [entity 2]

07 · Legal & Regulatory Environment

Collect raw data for scoring §9 Regulatory, Legal & Compliance Risk. → §9 Regulatory, Legal & Compliance Risk, §4 PIR-4.

Sanctions & export controls

• OFAC SDN / Consolidated screening (country / counterparties):
• EU / UK / UN sanctions bearing on country or sector:
• Export-control regime (EAR, ITAR, national equivalents):
• Source: ← (OFAC SDN list, EU FSAP, UN sanctions portal, UK FCDO)

Regulatory change risk

• Recent adverse regulatory changes (last 12 months):
• Signalled upcoming changes:
• Regulatory predictability rating (EIU / WEF / WB Doing Business predecessor):

Contract enforcement & dispute resolution

• Contract-enforcement ranking (WB Doing Business successor / WJP Rule of Law Index):
• Arbitration / international-dispute-resolution access:
• Known contract-breach precedents in client’s sector:

Corruption & compliance exposure

• FCPA / UKBA risk vectors specific to client’s procurement and operations:
• Known bribery demands or enforcement actions in sector:
• Anti-bribery compliance requirement (local):

Data-protection, licensing & tax

• Applicable data-protection regime:
• Licensing requirements for client’s activities:
• Tax / customs risk indicators:

08 · Indicators & Events

Recurring clonable block - each entry is a specific, observable indicator or event. These feed the risk-escalation register (§16) and the ACH (§18). → §16 Risk-Escalation & Early-Warning Indicators, §14 Overall Country Risk Rating & Trajectory, §3 KJ-3/KJ-5.

Early-warning indicators (watch items)

Clone per indicator. This is the living watch list - link each to the risk domain and §16 row it would update.

• [indicator - e.g. announcement of snap elections]
  • Risk domain / §16 row:
  • Score-change signalled:
  • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Present]
  • Severity: [Critical / High / Medium / Low]
  • Source / feed:
  • Notes / tool output: ← (ACLED API, GDELT, Reuters Alerting, OSAC Travel Advisories, government notices)
• [indicator 2]

Events timeline

Clone per event. Record dated incidents that bear on a risk score.

• [event - date / type / location]
  • Bearing on risk domain:
  • Score-change triggered:
  • Source grade:
  • Notes:
• [event 2]

ACH diagnostic evidence

Evidence items to array in the §18 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Label each C/I/N against the competing trajectory hypotheses.

• [evidence item]
  • H1 (risk holds): [C / I / N]
  • H2 (risk escalates): [C / I / N]
  • H3 (risk de-escalates): [C / I / N]
  • Source:
• [evidence item 2]

Key-assumptions inventory (feeds §19 KAC)

• [assumption - e.g. client exposure profile is complete and current]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact if wrong:
  • Linchpin?: [Y/N]
• [assumption 2]

09 · Sources & Media Landscape

Coverage-quality assessment and source-diversity audit across all domains. Feeds §22 Annex A Sources & Methodology and §22 coverage-confidence judgment. → §22 Annex A - Sources & Methodology, §20 Collection Gaps & RFIs.

Quantitative / institutional sources

• [dataset - e.g. ACLED / UNODC / IMF WEO / World Bank WGI / GDELT]
  • Coverage scope:
  • Currency (as-of date):
  • Reliability (A–F) / Credibility (1–6):
  • Known gaps / self-interest caveats:
  • Notes:
• [dataset 2]

Country-risk / commercial intelligence sources

• [provider - e.g. EIU / Oxford Analytica / Control Risks / Crisis24]
  • Coverage scope:
  • Access basis (licence / subscription / trial):
  • Reliability / credibility:
  • Notes:
• [provider 2]

Independent media (local / regional / international)

• [outlet - e.g. local investigative outlet / international wire]
  • Language:
  • Reliability (A–F) / Credibility (1–6):
  • Independence from state:
  • Notes:
• [outlet 2]

Official / state-controlled sources

Treat as potentially self-interested; corroborate against independent sources.

• [source - e.g. national statistical office / ministry report / state broadcaster]
  • Reliability / self-interest caveat:
  • Corroborated by:
  • Notes:
• [source 2]

Coverage-confidence assessment

• Domains with strong coverage (HIGH):
• Domains with moderate coverage (MODERATE):
• Domains with thin or heavily contested coverage (LOW):
• Overall coverage-confidence rating: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
• Principal coverage constraints (access, language, information environment):

99 · Collection Admin

Working register - not a deliverable section, but the audit trail and quality-control layer behind the risk assessment. Feeds §22 Annex A and §23 Annex B Appendix H.

Source register

Every material datum traceable to a graded source. Use Admiralty two-axis code.

• [S-1 - source name / type]
  • Type: [Primary / Secondary / Tertiary]
  • Reliability (A–F) / Credibility (1–6):
  • Date accessed:
  • Reference / URL:

Evidence archive

• [screenshot / dataset export / document ref + hash + URL + timestamp]:

Risk-score working notes

Pre-draft score decisions before they are entered in §6–§13 tables.

• [sub-risk - e.g. Political instability]
  • Inherent L: · Inherent I: · Inherent score:
  • Existing mitigation:
  • Residual L: · Residual I: · Residual score:
  • Trend: [↑/→/↓]
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]

Open gaps / verification pending

• [item - domain - impact on score - recommended collection]
• [item - route to OSINT-026 / OSINT-032 / OSINT-034 / OSINT-036 / in-country HUMINT]

RFIs issued

• [RFI ref - question - issued to - date - response due]

Analyst notes

• Collection started:
• Baseline / as-of date:
• Risk horizon:
• Client exposure profile confirmed: [Y/N - date]
• Peer-review status: