OSINT-038-scenario-alternative-futures-analysis-collection

OSINT-038 Scenario / Alternative Futures Analysis - Collection Map

OSINT-038 Scenario / Alternative Futures Analysis - collection workspace. Central topic = the strategic situation or question set under scenario analysis. Branches = the data-point categories for this scenario / alternative-futures analysis. Drop each collected value as a child node; expand it with where it was found. Paste raw tool output into the node’s Notes. → feeds deliverable OSINT-038.

00 · Collection Plan - PIRs & EEIs

The questions this collection must answer + the essential elements of information (EEI) for each. Tick as satisfied. → drives §3 Key Judgments, §4 Scenario Questions & PIRs, §12 Key Findings Summary, §16 Collection Gaps & RFIs.

SQ-1 - What are the plausible alternative futures for [situation] through [horizon]?

• EEI: scenario horizon stated and confirmed with client
• EEI: number of scenarios agreed (typically 3–5)
• EEI: scenario generation methodology selected (2×2 / cone / morphological / intuitive-logic)
• EEI: baseline product identified (Country/Regional Study OSINT-026 or Strategic Forecast OSINT-037, or none)

SQ-2 - What critical uncertainties most drive divergence among futures?

• EEI: Axis 1 critical uncertainty named and bounded
• EEI: Axis 2 critical uncertainty named and bounded
• EEI: predetermined drivers distinguished from critical uncertainties
• EEI: driver synthesis note written bridging §6 → §7

SQ-3 - Which scenario is most plausible and which is most challenging for the client?

• EEI: plausibility ordering assigned (qualitative - not calibrated probability)
• EEI: most challenging scenario identified and flagged for contingency planning
• EEI: most aspirational scenario identified

PIR-A - Critical-uncertainty intelligence

• EEI: current state of Axis 1 uncertainty documented with source grade
• EEI: current state of Axis 2 uncertainty documented with source grade
• EEI: trajectory and rate of change assessed for each critical uncertainty

PIR-B - Driver intelligence

• EEI: key driving forces (structural and proximate) enumerated
• EEI: current state and trajectory assessed for each driver
• EEI: predetermined elements distinguished from high-uncertainty elements

PIR-C - Signpost intelligence

• EEI: cross-scenario signposts defined (minimum 5, targeting diagnostic discriminators)
• EEI: each signpost linked to scenario(s) it favours and disfavours
• EEI: lead time and current status assessed per signpost
• EEI: disposition noted - Watch / Notify / Route to OSINT-040 I&W Program

Collection gaps / RFIs (running)

• [open item - critical uncertainty with thin coverage] → route to OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast & Estimate or OSINT-039 Horizon Scan
• [open item - driver state unobservable via OSINT] → route to in-country sourcing or OSINT-040 I&W Program
• [open item]

01 · Drivers & Key Variables

The forces that shape how the future could diverge. Collect current state + trajectory for each driver; classify as predetermined or critical uncertainty. → feeds §6 Critical Uncertainties & Driving Forces, §7 Scenario Generation.

Structural drivers (slow-moving, high-impact)

Macro forces shaping the situation over the scenario horizon - political economy, demographic, technological, geopolitical, institutional. Collect with trajectory arrows (↑/→/↓).

• [structural driver - e.g. demographic trend / institutional capacity / economic structure]
  • Current state:
  • Trajectory & rate of change: [↑/→/↓ + rate]
  • Predetermined or critical uncertainty: [Predetermined / Critical uncertainty]
  • Impact on scenario space: [High / Medium / Low]
  • Source (Admiralty grade):
  • Notes / tool output:

Proximate drivers (fast-moving, near-term)

Shorter-cycle forces - political cycles, market conditions, key-actor decisions, technology triggers.

• [proximate driver - e.g. electoral cycle / leadership decision / commodity price]
  • Current state:
  • Trajectory: [↑/→/↓]
  • Predetermined or critical uncertainty: [Predetermined / Critical uncertainty]
  • Impact: [High / Medium / Low]
  • Source grade:
  • Notes:

Exogenous shocks / wildcard candidates

Plausible but unpredictable events that could move critical uncertainties sharply. Feed to §15 Premortem.

• [wildcard - e.g. military escalation / technology surprise / natural disaster / leadership change]
  • Plausibility: [Low / Medium / High]
  • Impact if it occurs:
  • Which scenario(s) it would favour:
  • Notes:

02 · Indicators & Warnings

Observable signposts that discriminate between scenarios. Each indicator is a clonable block - duplicate per signpost. → feeds §11 Cross-Scenario Signposts & Warning Indicators, hand-off to OSINT-040 I&W Program.

Cross-scenario signposts

Prioritise diagnostic signposts - those that discriminate strongly between scenarios, not merely consistent with one.

• [signpost - e.g. observable event, policy announcement, market movement, actor decision]
  • Favours scenario(s):
  • Disfavours scenario(s):
  • Signal strength: [Strong / Moderate / Weak]
  • Lead time:
  • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Present]
  • Disposition: [Watch / Notify client / Re-assess scenario set / Route to OSINT-040 I&W Program]
  • Source / monitoring method:
  • Notes / tool output: ← news alerts, GDELT, ACLED, government trackers, regulatory filings
• [signpost 2]
  • Favours scenario(s):
  • Disfavours scenario(s):
  • Signal strength:
  • Lead time:
  • Current status:
  • Disposition:
  • Notes / tool output:
• [signpost 3]
• [signpost 4]
• [signpost 5]

Early-warning threshold register

Thresholds at which a signpost moves from Watch to Notify or triggers scenario re-assessment.

• [signpost ref] - threshold: - action:
• [signpost ref] - threshold: - action:

03 · Scenarios / Hypotheses

The scenario set - each scenario is its own clonable block. Build the scenario matrix here first (axes + quadrants), then flesh out each scenario. → feeds §7 Scenario Generation - The Scenario Matrix / Cone, §8 Scenario Narratives, §9 Likelihood Ordering, §10 Implications.

Scenario matrix axes

For 2×2 matrix: state the two critical uncertainty axes. For cone / morphological: adapt accordingly.

• Axis 1 critical uncertainty:
  • Low / negative outcome pole:
  • High / positive outcome pole:
• Axis 2 critical uncertainty:
  • Low / negative outcome pole:
  • High / positive outcome pole:

Scenario blocks (one per scenario - clone per scenario)

• [Scenario Name 1 - e.g. axis-combination label]
  • Defining logic (axis combination / branching path):
  • Core narrative arc (pathway from present to horizon):
  • Key events / inflection points:
  • End-state at horizon:
  • Who wins / who loses:
  • Plausibility (qualitative): [Most plausible / More likely than not / Roughly even / Less likely / Least plausible]
  • Decision-relevance for client: [High / Medium / Low]
  • Most challenging for client: [Y/N]
  • Most aspirational for client: [Y/N]
  • Client implications:
  • Notes:
• [Scenario Name 2]
  • Defining logic:
  • Core narrative arc:
  • Key events / inflection points:
  • End-state at horizon:
  • Who wins / who loses:
  • Plausibility:
  • Decision-relevance:
  • Most challenging: [Y/N]
  • Most aspirational: [Y/N]
  • Client implications:
  • Notes:
• [Scenario Name 3]
• [Scenario Name 4]

ACH matrix (array scenarios as competing hypotheses)

For each piece of evidence/indicator: C = consistent with scenario, I = inconsistent, N = neutral. → feeds §13 ACH.

• [evidence / indicator item]: Sc1 | Sc2 | Sc3 | Sc4
• [evidence / indicator item]: Sc1 | Sc2 | Sc3 | Sc4
• Most consistent scenario (ACH result):
• Diagnostic evidence that would overturn it:

Key Assumptions Check (KAC) items

Capture assumptions here during collection; formal table goes in §14.

• [assumption - e.g. critical uncertainties identified are the primary axes of divergence]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact if wrong:
  • Linchpin: [Y/N]
• [assumption - predetermined drivers are genuinely predictable over the horizon]
• [assumption - scenario set bounds the plausible range of outcomes]
• [assumption - no exogenous shock outside the scenario set intervenes within the horizon]

Premortem failure modes

Imagine the horizon date has passed and the real future fell outside the scenario set. → feeds §15 Premortem / Red-Team Check.

• [failure mode - e.g. missed critical uncertainty]
  • Driver or assumption that broke:
  • Likely bias: [Anchoring / Confirmation / Groupthink / Over-confidence / Availability]
  • Corrective / early catch - route to §11 signpost:

04 · Data Sources & Feeds

Sources monitored to track drivers and signposts. Each source is a clonable block - duplicate per source. → feeds §18 Annex A - Sources & Methodology, source register.

Official / primary sources

Government publications, statistical agencies, regulatory bodies, international organisations.

• [source - e.g. ministry publication / statistical agency / IGO report]
  • Provider / title:
  • Access cadence: [One-time / Weekly / Monthly / Quarterly]
  • Admiralty reliability: [A–F]
  • Admiralty credibility: [1–6]
  • Coverage scope:
  • Limitations / self-interest caveat:
  • As-of date:
  • Notes / tool output:
• [source 2]

Open-source / media feeds

Reputable media, academic reporting, think-tank publications, open datasets.

• [source - e.g. outlet / dataset / journal]
  • Provider / title:
  • Cadence:
  • Reliability: [A–F] / Credibility: [1–6]
  • Limitations:
  • Notes / tool output: ← GDELT, ACLED, FACTIVA, Google Alerts, Nexis, academic databases
• [source 2]

Specialist / commercial datasets

Licensed data providers, commercial intelligence feeds, financial data.

• [source]
  • Provider / licence scope:
  • Cadence:
  • Reliability: [A–F] / Credibility: [1–6]
  • Coverage:
  • Notes: ← Oxford Analytica, Jane’s, GovData, EIU, PRS Group, EMIS, risk-data vendors

In-country / discreet sourcing (if commissioned)

Human sourcing, in-country contacts - note source protection requirements.

• [source ref - anonymised]
  • Type / context:
  • Access cadence:
  • Reliability: [A–F] / Credibility: [1–6]
  • Source protection notes:
  • Notes:

05 · Key Actors & Entities

The actors whose decisions, capabilities, and interests most drive scenario divergence. Each actor is a clonable block. → feeds §6 Critical Uncertainties & Driving Forces, §8 Scenario Narratives, §10 Implications.

State / governmental actors

Governments, agencies, military/security services, state-owned enterprises with decisive role in the scenario space.

• [actor - e.g. government / ministry / state actor]
  • Role in scenario space:
  • Current posture:
  • Trajectory: [↑/→/↓]
  • Interests / objectives:
  • Capabilities:
  • Which scenario(s) this actor’s decisions most influence:
  • Sources:
  • Notes / tool output: ← government portals, official registers, UN data, OpenCorporates
• [actor 2]

Non-state / private actors

Companies, armed groups, NGOs, IFIs, multilaterals, influential individuals with decisive role.

• [actor - e.g. corporation / armed group / multilateral]
  • Role in scenario space:
  • Current posture:
  • Interests / objectives:
  • Which scenario(s) influenced:
  • Corporate registry / registration: ← OpenCorporates, national registries
  • Sources:
  • Notes / tool output:
• [actor 2]

Individual decision-makers

Key individuals whose decisions are direct inputs to the critical uncertainties or scenario pivot points.

• [individual - name / role]
  • Organisation / role:
  • Decision authority:
  • Known preferences / interests:
  • Trajectory (influence, health, tenure):
  • Sources:
  • Notes: ← news archives, corporate filings, public statements, Nexis

06 · Events Timeline

Chronological register of events relevant to the scenario space - past events that establish the baseline, near-term events that may trigger scenario divergence, scheduled events (elections, contract renewals, summits). → feeds §6 Critical Uncertainties & Driving Forces, §8 Scenario Narratives, §11 Signposts.

Historical baseline events (establishing the scenario context)

• [event - date - description]
  • Significance to scenario space:
  • Source grade:
  • Notes:

Near-term scheduled events (triggers / pivot points within the horizon)

• [event - e.g. election / summit / contract expiry / policy review date]
  • Date / window:
  • Possible outcomes:
  • Which scenario(s) the outcome favours:
  • Lead time to scenario impact:
  • Notes:

Unscheduled / contingent events to watch

• [contingent event - e.g. leadership change / conflict escalation / market shock]
  • Trigger condition:
  • Probability class: [Low / Medium / High]
  • Scenario impact:
  • Notes:

Timeline map (working chronology)

Paste raw chronology tool output here or build manually.

• Notes / tool output: ← GDELT event database, ACLED, news timeline tools, Wikipedia, government archives

07 · Assumptions & Uncertainties

Explicit register of working assumptions and documented uncertainties - distinct from the KAC in §14 (which is the formal check); this is the collection-phase capture before the KAC is written. Also captures ICD 203 analytic-independence notes. → feeds §14 Key Assumptions Check, §15 Premortem, §17 Assessment & Recommendations.

Working assumptions (collection phase)

• [assumption: e.g. the two identified critical uncertainties are the primary axes of divergence]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Linchpin risk: [Y/N - if wrong, materially changes scenario space]
  • Notes:
• [assumption: the predetermined drivers will remain predictable over the horizon]
• [assumption: the scenario horizon is appropriate for the client’s decision purpose]
• [assumption: no exogenous shock outside the scenario set intervenes within the horizon]
• [assumption: the scenario generation methodology is appropriate for this question]

Documented uncertainties

• [uncertainty: e.g. critical-uncertainty resolution direction is unobservable in open sources]
  • Impact on scenario space:
  • Recommended collection to reduce:
  • Route to: [OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast / OSINT-039 Horizon Scan / OSINT-040 I&W Program]
  • Notes:

Analytic-independence notes (ICD 203)

• Policy neutrality check:
• Client-preferred-outcome pressure identified and resisted: [Y/N - note]
• Alternatives tested (not suppressed):
• Reporting vs. analytic judgment separated throughout: [Y/N]
• Confidence caveats stated explicitly: [Y/N]

99 · Collection Admin

Working register - not a deliverable section, but the audit trail behind the scenario set. → supports §18 Annex A - Sources & Methodology, §19 Annex B Appendix H Full Source Register.

Source register

Every material datum traceable to a graded source. Admiralty two-axis code: reliability A–F, credibility 1–6.

• [S-1 - source]
  • Type: [Primary / Secondary / Tertiary]
  • Reliability (A–F) / Credibility (1–6):
  • Date accessed:
  • Coverage scope:
  • Limitations / self-interest caveat:
• [S-2]
• [S-3]

Evidence archive

• [screenshot / capture ref + hash + URL + timestamp - scenario framing material]:
• [screenshot / capture ref + hash + URL + timestamp - driver evidence]:
• [screenshot / capture ref + hash + URL + timestamp - signpost observation]:

Methodology workpapers

References to working docs feeding the structured techniques - ACH, KAC, Premortem, scenario matrix.

• ACH workpaper ref: → feeds §13 ACH, Appendix E
• KAC workpaper ref: → feeds §14 KAC, Appendix E
• Premortem workpaper ref: → feeds §15 Premortem, Appendix E
• Scenario matrix / cone workbook ref: → feeds §7 Scenario Generation, Appendix C

Open gaps / verification pending

• [gap - critical uncertainty with thin coverage - impact on scenario space - recommended collection]
• [gap - signpost not observable via open sources - route to OSINT-040 I&W Program]
• [gap - driver state contested - route to OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast & Estimate]
• [gap - weak signal flagged during scenario development - route to OSINT-039 Horizon Scan]

Downstream product hand-offs

Items to route when this deliverable is finalised.

• Per-scenario signposts for OSINT-040 I&W Program: [pending / routed / confirmed]
• Scenario probabilities (if assigned) for OSINT-041 Probabilistic Forecasting Dashboard: [pending / routed / n/a]
• Weak signals flagged to OSINT-039 Horizon Scan: [pending / routed / none]
• Gaps requiring calibrated forecast routed to OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast & Estimate: [pending / routed / none]

RFI log

• [RFI-01 - question - raised YYYY-MM-DD - routed to - status]
• [RFI-02]