OSINT-039-horizon-scan-emerging-threats-report-collection

Horizon Scan / Emerging Threats Report - Collection Map

OSINT-039 Horizon Scan / Emerging Threats Report - collection workspace. Central topic = the scan subject / strategic question being swept (sector, region, domain, or programme). Branches = data-point categories and signal-hunting lanes for this deliverable. Drop each collected value as a child node; expand it with where it was found and what it signals. Paste raw tool output into the node’s Notes. → feeds deliverable OSINT-039.

00 · Collection Plan - PIRs & EEIs

The questions this collection must answer. Tick each EEI as satisfied. → drives §3 Key Judgments, §4 PIRs, §6 Emerging Issues Register, §11 Key Findings Summary, §15 Collection Gaps & RFIs.

PIR-1 - Geopolitical / Security: what nascent geopolitical, conflict, or security developments could materially affect the client’s interests within the horizon?

• EEI: identify at minimum 3 discrete geopolitical or security emerging issues in the scan aperture
• EEI: plausibility band assigned to each (ICD 203) and supporting evidence located
• EEI: change indicators for each issue identified (→ §3 KJ-1, §6, §8)

PIR-2 - Technological / Cyber: what emerging technologies, cyber threats, or digital-domain discontinuities are on the horizon?

• EEI: technology or cyber emerging issues mapped to driver domain
• EEI: patent / grant / academic signals collected from specialist literature
• EEI: novelty grade assigned (Novel / Emerging / Known-but-escalating / Mature) (→ §3 KJ-2, §6, §8)

PIR-3 - Economic / Financial: what nascent economic, market, or financial-system developments could disrupt the client’s operating environment?

• EEI: economic or market emerging issues captured with plausibility and impact
• EEI: financial-system or supply-chain disruption signals located (→ §6, §9)

PIR-4 - Environmental / Resource: what emerging environmental, climate, or resource-scarcity developments carry material risk?

• EEI: environmental or climate-adjacent emerging issues identified
• EEI: resource-scarcity or infrastructure-stress signals noted (→ §6, §10)

PIR-5 - Social / Demographic / Health: what nascent social, demographic, public-health, or workforce developments could shift the operating context?

• EEI: social or demographic emerging issues captured
• EEI: public-health or workforce signals identified (→ §6, §9)

PIR-6 - Regulatory / Legal / Compliance: what emerging regulatory, legal, or compliance developments could affect the client’s licence to operate?

• EEI: regulatory or compliance emerging issues identified
• EEI: draft legislation, regulatory consultations, or enforcement-trend signals located (→ §6, §15)

PIR-7 - Wildcards / Discontinuities: what low-probability / high-impact discontinuities or black-swan-adjacent issues are plausible within the horizon?

• EEI: at least 2 wildcards or discontinuities described with potential impact and leading indicators (→ §10)
• EEI: each wildcard assigned a plausibility band and a disposition (Watch / Escalate / Ignore)

Collection gaps / RFIs (running)

• [open gap - domain under-swept] → route to [PIR / escalation target]
• [source-language or publication-lag blind spot] → expert elicitation / in-country HUMINT
• [issue warranting deeper treatment] → route to OSINT-037 / OSINT-038 / OSINT-040

01 · Drivers & Key Variables

The driver taxonomy / framing framework that structures the sweep - the STEEP-V or PESTLE categories, the key variables within each, and the baseline context. → feeds §2 Executive Summary & Scope, §5 Scan Methodology & Framing, §9 Cross-Cutting Themes & Driver Synthesis.

STEEP-V / Driver taxonomy in use

• Framework selected: [STEEP-V / PESTLE / PMESII-PT / Custom]
  • Social / Demographic:
  • Technological / Cyber:
  • Economic / Financial:
  • Environmental / Resource:
  • Political / Geopolitical:
  • Values / Legal / Regulatory:

Scan aperture & horizon

• Scan subject / aperture:
• Forward horizon: [e.g., 2–5 years / 5–10 years]
• Aperture rationale (why this scope):
• Explicit exclusions:

Baseline trajectory inputs

• OSINT-026 Country / Regional Study used: [Y/N - ref]
• OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast & Estimate used: [Y/N - ref]
• Other baseline product:

Key variables (most influential unknowns)

• [variable - e.g. pace of AI adoption]
  • Domain:
  • Uncertainty level: [High / Medium / Low]
  • Source:
• [variable 2]

02 · Indicators & Warnings

Weak signals, early indicators, and novel data points that trigger or could trigger emerging issues. Each signal is a clonable block. Clone per signal observed. → feeds §8 Weak Signals & Novel Indicators, §6 Emerging Issues Register, and hands off to OSINT-040 I&W Program.

Signals register

Clone the block per signal. Capture raw search results in Notes.

• [signal - e.g. patent-filing spike in autonomous-weapons domain]
  • Domain (PIR): [PIR-1 / PIR-2 / PIR-3 / PIR-4 / PIR-5 / PIR-6 / PIR-7]
  • Source type: [academic / grey literature / patent/grant DB / specialist media / social media/forum / expert elicitation / other]
  • Source (title + URL):
  • Signal strength: [Strong / Moderate / Weak]
  • Diagnostic value: [High / Moderate / Low]
  • Issue(s) signalled (→ §6 issue #):
  • Current status: [Not present / Emerging / Confirmed / Disconfirmed]
  • Disposition: [Watch / Escalate / Route to I&W Program / Close]
  • Notes / tool output: ← media-frequency tracker, Google Trends, patent DB query, Scopus/SSRN search
• [signal 2]
• [signal 3]

Signpost matrix

• [Issue # or label] - signposts that would confirm emergence:
• [Issue # or label] - signposts that would disconfirm:

03 · Scenarios / Hypotheses

The competing interpretations and alternative futures - used to frame the emerging issues register (§6), the ACH (§12), and the wildcards (§10). Scenarios are not forecasts; they are coherent, internally consistent futures that bound the scan’s findings. → feeds §3 Key Judgments, §10 Discontinuities & Wildcards, §12 ACH, §14 Premortem.

Scenario framing (2×2 or cone)

• Scenario A - [label: e.g., Gradual escalation / baseline continues]:
  • Key driver combination:
  • Plausibility:
  • Principal implications for client:
• Scenario B - [label: e.g., Rapid disruption]:
  • Key driver combination:
  • Plausibility:
  • Principal implications for client:
• Scenario C - [label: e.g., Structural discontinuity]:
  • Key driver combination:
  • Plausibility:
  • Principal implications for client:
• Scenario D - [label: e.g., Surprising resolution / de-escalation]:
  • Key driver combination:
  • Plausibility:
  • Principal implications for client:

ACH issue (selected high-stakes issue, §12)

• Issue selected for ACH:
• H1 interpretation:
• H2 interpretation:
• H3 interpretation (if applicable):
• Most diagnostic evidence item:
• Most consistent interpretation:

Key Assumptions Check inputs (→ §13)

• [assumption - e.g. STEEP-V taxonomy captures relevant domains]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact on scan if wrong:
  • Linchpin: [Y/N]
• [assumption 2]

04 · Data Sources & Feeds

The source base that powers the scan - each source type is a clonable block. Clone per source or feed. Grade every material source. → feeds §17 Annex A Sources & Methodology, §15 Collection Gaps.

Source / feed register

Clone per source. Admiralty two-axis grade required for each material datum.

• [source - e.g. RAND Corporation grey literature]
  • Type: [Academic / Grey literature / Patent/grant DB / Specialist media / Official statistics / Social media/forum / Expert elicitation / Trade publication / State-controlled media]
  • Provider / title:
  • URL / database:
  • Coverage scope:
  • As-of date:
  • Reliability (A–F):
  • Credibility (1–6):
  • Self-interest / reliability caveat:
  • Notes / tool output: ← Scopus, SSRN, Google Scholar, Dimensions.ai; patent: Espacenet, Google Patents, Lens.org; grants: NIH Reporter, UKRI Gateway, grants.gov
• [source 2 - e.g. specialist trade publication]
• [source 3 - e.g. social media / forum monitoring]
  • Platform(s):
  • Terms / keywords used:
  • Date range:
  • Notes / tool output: ← Brandwatch, Meltwater, manual Boolean search, Reddit/X public search
• [source 4 - expert elicitation record]
  • Elicitation method: [structured interview / Delphi / red-team panel]
  • Participant(s) / role:
  • Questions posed:
  • Notes / outputs:

Search terms & protocol log

• Domain / PIR swept:
  • Search terms used:
  • Databases / platforms queried:
  • Date range of sweep:
  • Novelty threshold applied:
  • Notes:

Patent / grant landscaping

• [technology domain]
  • Filing trend (up/flat/down):
  • Lead assignees / applicants:
  • Signal strength:
  • Database queried:
  • Notes / tool output: ← Espacenet, Google Patents, Lens.org, Espacenet CPC

05 · Key Actors & Entities

The actors, organisations, or entities that drive, enable, or are affected by the emerging issues - each is a clonable block. Clone per actor. → feeds §6 Emerging Issues Register, §9 Cross-Cutting Themes, §16 Recommendations.

Actor / entity register

Clone per actor.

• [actor - e.g. state actor / regulatory body / technology firm / non-state group]
  • Type: [State / Non-state / Regulatory / Corporate / Academic / Multilateral / Criminal / Other]
  • Jurisdiction:
  • Role in emerging issue(s):
  • Issues involved (→ §6 #):
  • Capacity / intent assessment:
  • Source:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Notes / tool output: ← OpenCorporates, national registries, OCCRP, Sayari, company-house filings
• [actor 2]
• [actor 3]

Actor network notes

• Interaction / compounding relationships between actors:
• Coalition or convergence risks:

06 · Events Timeline

Discrete events, developments, or milestones - past and scheduled - that anchor the emerging issues or that function as signposts. Clone per event. → feeds §6 Emerging Issues Register, §8 Weak Signals, §9 Cross-Cutting Themes.

Events register

Clone per event.

• [event - e.g. regulatory deadline / technology milestone / election / conflict escalation point]
  • Date (actual or projected):
  • Domain (PIR):
  • Significance for scan:
  • Issue(s) linked (→ §6 #):
  • Source:
  • Notes:
• [event 2]
• [event 3]

Scheduled / anticipated milestones

• [milestone - e.g. G20 summit / treaty review / product launch / election]
  • Date:
  • Relevance to scan:

07 · Assumptions & Uncertainties

The assumptions underlying the scan and the irreducible uncertainties that bound it - feeds directly into §13 Key Assumptions Check and §14 Premortem. These are the analytic load-bearing elements of the product.

Scan-level assumptions

• [assumption - e.g. the driver taxonomy is complete]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact if wrong:
  • Linchpin: [Y/N]
• [assumption - e.g. signal-hunting protocol is broad enough]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact if wrong:
  • Linchpin: [Y/N]
• [assumption - e.g. source base is not systematically biased toward English-language / Western sources]
  • Basis:
  • Confidence: [H/M/L]
  • Impact if wrong:
  • Linchpin: [Y/N]

Key uncertainties (irreducible)

• [uncertainty - e.g. pace of AI regulation globally]:
• [uncertainty - e.g. geopolitical trajectory in [region]]:

Coverage confidence assessment (product-level)

• Overall coverage confidence: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
• Strongest domain(s):
• Weakest domain(s):
• Principal bias risk:

Premortem inputs (→ §14)

• [failure mode - scan missed [issue] because…]
  • Assumption / domain that broke:
  • Likely bias type: [Availability / Confirmation / Anchoring / Groupthink / Cultural / Professional blind spot]
  • Corrective / early catch:
• [failure mode 2]

99 · Collection Admin

Working register - not a deliverable section, but the audit trail behind it.

Source register (graded)

Every material datum traceable to a graded source. Admiralty A–F / 1–6.

• [S-1 - source]
  • Type: [Primary / Secondary / Tertiary / Expert elicitation]
  • Reliability (A–F):
  • Credibility (1–6):
  • Date accessed:
  • Coverage domain / PIR:

Evidence archive

• [screenshot / capture ref + hash + URL + timestamp]:
• [patent / grant record ref]:
• [expert elicitation record ref]:

Open gaps / RFIs (running)

• [gap - domain, language, or source-type under-coverage] → route to [PIR / escalation target]
• [specific issue requiring deeper treatment] → route to OSINT-037 / OSINT-038 / OSINT-040 / OSINT-029
• [expert to elicit or in-country source to develop]

Escalation log (issues routed downstream)

• [issue / signal routed to OSINT-037 Strategic Forecast & Estimate]:
• [issue / signal routed to OSINT-038 Scenario Analysis]:
• [issue / signal routed to OSINT-040 I&W Program]:
• [issue / signal routed to OSINT-029 Intelligence Estimate]:
• [issue / signal routed to OSINT-041 Probabilistic Forecasting Dashboard]: