PROGRAM COST MODEL
The PROGRAM COST MODEL rolls the firm’s equipment cost baseline into one decision document: what standing up the detail costs now (startup capital), what is consciously deferred (growth tier with trigger conditions), what runs monthly, and what varies per engagement. Line-item selections and their engineering rationale live in the providing kit cells (SYS-003, SYS-004, SYS-009, SYS-010, and SYS-011 via ART-loadout-cost-baseline); labor cost lives in BIZ-010 payroll and insurance in BIZ-012; this model does not duplicate either, it consumes them. All prices are vendor list, USD, as of 2026-07-05, source register in Annex A. Quantities assume the current organization: four equipped field personnel and two vehicles, plus the shared intelligence collection platform (SYS-011).
Document Control
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Report Reference | [REF-YYYY-###] |
| Date of Report | [YYYY-MM-DD] |
| Pricing As-Of Date | 2026-07-05 |
| Classification / Handling | internal |
| Prepared By | [ANALYST NAME / ID] |
| Reviewed By | [REVIEWER NAME / ID] |
| Approving Officer | [APPROVER NAME / ID] |
| Version | [0.1.0] |
| Distribution | [NAMED RECIPIENTS] |
Handling Caveat
Handling: internal. Contains the firm’s procurement posture and capability gaps; do not share outside the firm.
Nature of this product: Budgetary decision support. Prices are point-in-time vendor list prices, not quotes; procurement confirms live prices before purchase orders.
Table of Contents
- Purpose and Basis of Estimate
- Cost Structure
- Startup Capital Roll-Up
- Growth Tier and Trigger Conditions
- Recurring Costs
- Per-Engagement Variable Costs
- Key Trade Decisions
- Assumptions and Risks
- Review Cadence
1. Purpose and Basis of Estimate
- Decision supported: authorize the startup-now procurement, and pre-agree the conditions under which growth-tier spending unlocks, so equipment decisions stop being per-item debates.
- Basis of estimate: analogy-free direct pricing; every line is a real product at a real vendor list price observed on the as-of date (Annex A). No engineering allowances are hidden in lines; uncertainty is carried explicitly in Section 8.
- Quantity basis: 4 individual loadouts (RF, BR, MR, JM), 2 vehicle loadouts, 1 situational awareness kit, 1 satellite backhaul set, 1 shared OSINT collection platform (SYS-011). The systems engineer (CS) draws from pool equipment and is not a separately equipped field position.
2. Cost Structure
| Category | Definition | Source of Truth |
|---|---|---|
| Startup capital (CAPEX-now) | One-time purchases required to be operational this quarter (detail loadout + collection platform) | SYS BOM rows tiered startup-now |
| Growth capital (CAPEX-deferred) | Pre-selected upgrades with named triggers, not yet purchased | SYS BOM rows tiered growth |
| Recurring fixed | Monthly/annual costs that exist independent of engagements | This model, Section 5 |
| Per-engagement variable | Costs that scale with engagement count, duration, location | Drivers in Section 6; priced per engagement in the proposal (BIZ-002) |
| Labor | Operator pay and contractor rates | BIZ-010 (not restated here) |
| Insurance and licensing | Liability coverage, licensure fees | BIZ-012 / BIZ-011 (not restated here) |
3. Startup Capital Roll-Up
Per-kit subtotals from the providing BOMs; quantities applied here.
Two program areas: the protective detail loadout (4 operators, 2 vehicles) and the shared intelligence collection platform (SYS-011). The platform is firm infrastructure amortized across all intelligence engagements, not a per-client cost.
| Kit | Unit Cost | Qty | Extended | Providing Cell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individual operator loadout (handset, IFAK, concealable IIIA+ armor, light, multi-tool, ankle med kit) | $1,343.80 | 4 | $5,375.20 | SYS-009 (handset via SYS-003) |
| Vehicle loadout (trauma/burn kit, recovery set, jump starter, tire repair, fire suppression) | $857.12 | 2 | $1,714.24 | SYS-010 |
| Situational awareness kit (2 battery cams, RTSP hub, battery Wi-Fi 6 router, power bank) | $579.95 | 1 | $579.95 | SYS-004 |
| Satellite backhaul (Starlink Mini, vehicle power cable, 99 Wh power bank) | $424.00 | 1 | $424.00 | SYS-003 |
| Detail loadout subtotal | $8,093.39 | |||
| OSINT collection backbone (N1 collector + N2 core mini-PCs, multi-WAN router, switch, UPS, cold archive; Starlink reused) | $1,495.97 | 1 | $1,495.97 | SYS-011 |
| Intelligence platform subtotal | $1,495.97 | |||
| Startup capital total (program) | $9,589.36 |
Working figure with a [10 percent] price-movement and shipping/tax allowance: [$10,550] authorization request. Of this, [$8,900] is the detail loadout (unchanged) and [$1,650] is the collection platform.
4. Growth Tier and Trigger Conditions
Growth items are already selected and priced in the BOMs; this table fixes when each unlocks. Pre-deciding triggers converts upgrade debates into threshold checks.
| Growth Item | Extended Cost | Trigger Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Rifle-rated armor: Slickster carrier + 2x RMA III+ (RF2) plates, x4 | $3,459.92 | Any AO or engagement with assessed rifle threat (posture High/Critical with firearms indicators), or standing contract in such an AO |
| IFAK upgrade to low-profile D.A.R.K. kits, x4 | $892.00 | Covert-heavy tasking mix (EP-014/EP-024 standing work) where pouch signature matters |
| Vehicle recovery/fire upgrades (Maxtrax, GB150, VIAIR 400P, pro plug kit, HalGuard clean agent), x2 | $2,309.76 | First sustained remote/off-road AO engagement, or first recovery-kit field use revealing budget-tier failure |
| Vehicle trauma kit upgrade (Rescue Essentials FRV), x2 | $673.76 | Detail strength or party size regularly exceeding 6 persons per vehicle serial |
| SA kit full buildout (solar cam, 2x POE cams, injector, LTE gateway) | $986.46 | First multi-day static post (residence/event) engagement, which needs solar sustainment and wired coverage |
| Second Starlink Mini + power bank | $388.00 | Two-vehicle split operations in degraded-comms AO |
| Collection: N3 inference node (GTi15 Ultra 64 GB) + optional GPU dock | $1,678.00 | Monthly LLM API spend exceeds amortized N3 cost for two consecutive months, or a client contract prohibits third-party LLM processing |
| Collection: N2 RAM upgrade to 64 GB (DDR5, 2 x 32 GB) | $719.99 | Enrichment memory pressure on the 32 GB core node, bundled with N3; defer until DDR5 street price normalizes off the 2026 shortage |
| Collection: N4 second collector node (EQ14) | $219.00 | Sustained N1 CPU above 70 percent, or a second country AO is sold |
| Growth tier total (all triggers fired) | $11,326.89 |
5. Recurring Costs
| Item | Cost | Cadence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starlink Regional Roam (100 GB, N. America incl. Mexico) | $55.00 | Per active month | Pausable to $0 (Standby); budget [4-6] active months/year until standing overseas work exists |
| Starlink Global Roam (Costa Rica and beyond) | $165.00 | Per active month | Only for trip months where Regional coverage is unconfirmed; see risk R3 |
| Medical consumables (hemostatic/dressing expiry, drill usage) | [$200-$400] | Annual | Estimate, not a quoted price; NAR expiry cycle drives it |
| GrapheneOS, Signal, ATAK-CIV | $0.00 | - | No license cost at current scale |
| Residential proxy (collection, SYS-011) | $60.00 (est.) | Per active monitoring month | Pay-as-you-go ~$4/GB, ~15 GB/mo; scales with social-lane volume; pausable when no monitoring contract active |
| Datacenter proxy pool (collection, SYS-011) | $26.91 | Per active monitoring month | Shared 1,000-proxy plan; pausable |
| LLM API generation (collection, SYS-011) | $100.00 (est.) | Per active monitoring month | Usage-dependent (~60 MTok/mo); replaced by growth N3 when the trigger fires |
| Recurring fixed total (steady state) | [$200-$400]/yr + $55/active comms month + $186.91/active monitoring month | Excludes labor (BIZ-010), insurance (BIZ-012), licensure (BIZ-011). Only annual line is medical consumables; collection recurring is offset by monitoring-service revenue (OSINT-036/065) |
6. Per-Engagement Variable Costs
Not priced here; the proposal (BIZ-002) prices them per engagement from these drivers.
| Driver | Scales With | Feed |
|---|---|---|
| Travel and lodging for advance and detail | Party size, AO, duration | BIZ-007 itinerary, BIZ-008 lodging |
| Vehicle rental/allocation | Vehicle count, AO, armor requirement | BIZ-009 |
| Vendor surge staffing | Coverage hours beyond organic 4-person capacity | ART-vendor-roster, BIZ-006 |
| Local SIMs / data | Operator count, duration | SYS-003 deployment step |
| Starlink activation months | Overseas trip months | Section 5 rates |
| Consumables burn (medical, batteries) | Engagement tempo | Restock per SYS-009/SYS-010 audits |
7. Key Trade Decisions
Ranked alternatives behind the three largest startup selections; full BOMs in the providing cells.
Armor (largest line, $2,796 of startup):
| Rank | Option | Cost x4 | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (selected) | Safe Life Defense concealable IIIA+ multi-threat | $2,796.00 | Certified concealable soft armor with edged/spike rating; matches low-visibility EP profile; wearable all day, which armor must be to be worn at all |
| 2 | BulletSafe VP4 concealable IIIA | $1,999.88 | $796 cheaper; consumer-tier brand, ballistic-only rating; the fallback if the authorization is cut |
| 3 | Slickster + RMA III+ plates | $3,459.92 | Rifle protection the current threat basis does not require; heavier, prints under business wear; deferred to growth trigger |
Individual medical ($515.96 of startup):
| Rank | Option | Cost x4 | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (selected) | NAR Eagle IFAK (CAT Gen 7, CoTCCC set) | $515.96 | Windlass tourniquet and CoTCCC-recommended components; REQ-SYS-009-02 is verified by Test, and non-CoTCCC devices risk failing it |
| 2 | MyFAK Standard | $543.84 | Slightly costlier at current sale pricing and carries a non-windlass RATS tourniquet; rejected on device standard, not price |
| 3 | A-la-carte CoTCCC build | $528.76+ | Component parity at similar cost but no pouch and four-vendor procurement overhead |
Communications backhaul ($424 + service):
| Rank | Option | Cost | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (selected) | Starlink Mini + pausable Regional Roam | $424.00 + $55/active mo | Only option meeting REQ-SYS-003-03 failover with $0 idle cost; Mexico covered under Regional |
| 2 | Starlink Mini + Global Roam standing | $424.00 + $165/mo | Needed only for Costa Rica months until Regional coverage there is confirmed; month-by-month, not standing |
| 3 | Cellular-only (no satellite) | $0.00 | Rejected: fails the blackout/failover requirement that motivated SYS-003 |
Collection core-node memory ($720 avoided at startup):
| Rank | Option | Cost | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (selected) | SER8 at 32 GB / 1 TB now, upgrade to 64 GB at growth | $889.00 | The 2026 DRAM shortage prices a 64 GB DDR5 kit at ~$720 versus a ~$258 historical norm; 32 GB carries the startup lane load with generation off-loaded to the LLM API; upgrade deferred until DDR5 normalizes and enrichment memory actually demands it |
| 2 | SER8 barebones + 64 GB DDR5 at buy time | $1,608.99 | Buys headroom into a price spike the design does not yet need; rejected on shortage timing |
| 3 | Larger core node (mini-workstation, 96 GB+) | $2,000+ | Over-provisions for a two-lane startup; deferred to a multi-country platform decision |
8. Assumptions and Risks
Assumptions (risk if false):
- A1: 4 equipped personnel / 2 vehicles is the steady state for the next two quarters. If staffing grows, individual kit cost adds $1,343.80 per hire at current prices.
- A2: Current threat basis does not include rifle-fire threat in contracted AOs. If false, the growth armor trigger fires immediately (+$3,459.92).
- A3: Vendor list prices hold within [10 percent] through the procurement window. If false, the Section 3 allowance absorbs it or the buy re-prices.
- A4: NAR public “as low as” pricing is the ceiling; a professional account may invoice lower. Upside only.
- A5: The two-node startup collection tier (SYS-011) carries the full Costa Rica lane load. If false, the N4 growth trigger fires early and its $219 moves forward.
- A6: A monitoring client (OSINT-065 for Costa Rica) is active, so collection recurring is revenue-offset. If the platform runs with no monitoring contract, its $186.91/mo is pure overhead and lanes should be paused.
Risks:
| ID | Risk | L (1-5) | C (1-5) | Score | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Estimated lines (Reolink POE cams, Argus solar bundle) priced from derived/cached figures | 3 | 1 | 3 | Live cart check before PO; items are under $500 combined exposure |
| R2 | Tariff or vendor repricing between as-of date and PO | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 percent allowance; re-verify at PO |
| R3 | Starlink Regional Roam does not cover Costa Rica when first CR engagement lands | 3 | 2 | 6 | Budget CR trip months at Global Roam $165; confirm coverage with Starlink before mobilization (BIZ-003) |
| R4 | Armor sizing/fit failures on remote hires force exchanges | 2 | 2 | 4 | Fit per SYS-009 handover step before AO deployment |
| R5 | Budget-tier recovery items (traction boards, inflator) fail in first real recovery | 2 | 3 | 6 | Accepted consciously; failure fires the vehicle growth trigger; name-brand jump starter and rope already baseline |
| R6 | 2026 DRAM/NAND shortage inflates the deferred collection upgrades (64 GB RAM, any SSD archive); growth cost higher than shown if bought during the spike | 4 | 2 | 8 | Startup design avoids the spiked components (32 GB + HDD archive); time the growth buy to price normalization; growth lines flagged (est.) |
| R7 | Collection recurring (proxy, LLM API) is usage-estimated, not quoted; heavy scraping or generation volume overruns the $186.91/mo | 3 | 2 | 6 | Pay-as-you-go providers cap exposure; weekly lane-volume review; N3 growth trigger converts LLM API opex to capex when it pays off |
| R8 | Beelink street prices (EQ14, switch, HDD) are estimates, not page-quoted; live carts differ | 3 | 1 | 3 | Confirm live carts before PO; combined estimated exposure under $350 |
9. Review Cadence
- Re-price all BOM lines quarterly and at every engagement proposal that commits equipment; update the as-of date here and in the providing cells together.
- Any BOM change in SYS-003/004/009/010/011 that moves a subtotal by more than [5 percent] re-versions this model.
- Re-price the volatile collection lines (RAM, storage) at each PO window until the 2026 shortage clears; they are flagged (est.) until page-quoted.
- Growth trigger review at each engagement close (EP-017) and each quarterly review: did a trigger fire silently?
Annex A: Price Source Register
Vendor list prices observed 2026-07-05. Confidence: quoted (page-observed) unless marked estimated/derived.
| Item | Vendor | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pixel 8 128GB renewed (GrapheneOS host) | Amazon | $259.00 | Prior SYS-003 procurement basis |
| NAR Eagle IFAK | narescue.com | $128.99 | narescue.com/eagle-ifak-kit-options.html |
| Dark Angel D.A.R.K. kit | darkangelmedical.com | $223.00 (midpoint) | darkangelmedical.com/ifaks/ |
| Safe Life Defense concealable IIIA+ | safelifedefense.com | $699.00 | safelifedefense.com/shop/concealable-enhanced-multi-threat-vest-level-iiia-plus/ |
| BulletSafe VP4 concealable | srstactical.com | $499.97 | srstactical.com/brands/bulletsafe.html |
| Ferro Slickster | ferroconcepts.com | $165.00 | ferroconcepts.com/products/the-slickster |
| RMA ESRT III+ (RF2) plate, each | rmadefense.com | $349.99 | rmadefense.com/product-category/body-armor/level-iii-plus-body-armor/ |
| Streamlight ProTac HL-X | brightguy.com | $97.90 | brightguy.com/product/streamlight-protac-hl-x-flashlight/ |
| Leatherman Wave Plus | bladehq.com | $103.96 | leatherman.com/products/wave (street via Blade HQ) |
| Ryker AFAK | rykernylongear.com | $54.95 | rykernylongear.com/product-page/afak-black |
| NAR Patrol Vehicle Trauma Kit | narescue.com | $279.99 | narescue.com/patrol-vehicle-trauma-kits.html |
| Rescue Essentials FRV kit | rescue-essentials.com | $336.88 | rescue-essentials.com/first-responder-vehicle-kit/ |
| X-BULL Gen2-S boards, pair | xbullauto.com | $69.99 | xbullauto.com (G2-S recovery tracks) |
| Rhino USA kinetic rope kit | rhinousainc.com | $179.90 | rhinousainc.com/products/7-8x30-kinetic-recovery-rope-kit |
| Rhino USA folding shovel | rhinousainc.com | $26.90 | rhinousainc.com (folding survival shovel) |
| NOCO Boost GB70 | no.co | $199.95 | no.co/gb70 |
| NOCO Boost GB150 | no.co | $299.95 | no.co/boost |
| VIAIR 400P | homedepot.com | $246.99 | homedepot.com (VIAIR 400P kit) |
| Tire plug kit + 12V inflator (budget) | Walmart/Amazon | $54.89 | walmart.com (Slime deluxe) + amazon.com (Basics inflator) |
| Amerex B417T w/ bracket | fireextinguisherdepot.com | $45.50 | fireextinguisherdepot.com (B417T) |
| H3R HalGuard HG100C | amazon.com | $280.00 | amazon.com/dp/B001KAO63G |
| Maxtrax MKII, pair | maxtraxus.com | $279.99 | maxtraxus.com (MKII recovery tracks) |
| Reolink Argus 3 Pro | reolink.com | $119.99 | reolink.com/product/argus-3-pro/ |
| Reolink Home Hub | newegg.com | $149.99 | newegg.com (Reolink Home Hub) |
| Reolink Argus 4 Pro + solar | reolink.com | $444.98 (part-estimated) | reolink.com/product/argus-4-pro/ + panel estimate |
| Reolink RLC-540A | reolink.com | $89.99 (estimated) | reolink.com/us/product/rlc-540a/ |
| Reolink RLC-820A | newegg.com | $97.50 (derived, 2-pack / 2) | newegg.com (RLC-820A 2-pack $194.99) |
| TP-Link TL-POE160S | amazon.com | $24.99 | amazon.com (TL-POE160S) |
| GL.iNet Slate AX | gl-inet.com | $119.99 | gl-inet.com/en-us/products/gl-axt1800 |
| Anker 20,000 mAh 87W | anker.com | $69.99 | anker.com/products/a1383 |
| Teltonika RUTX11 | getic.com | $329.00 | getic.com/product/teltonika-rutx11 |
| Starlink Mini kit | starlink.com | $199.00 | starlink.com/mini-product-us |
| USB-C PD trigger cable 140W | amazon.com | $36.00 | amazon.com/dp/B0DH1K3DCJ |
| CTmods 99 Wh power bank | ctmods.com | $189.00 | ctmods.com (Starlink Mini power bank, sale price) |
| Starlink Regional Roam | starlink.com | $55.00/mo | Rate effective 2026-06-18 billing cycles |
| Starlink Global Roam | starlink.com | $165.00/mo | Same rate change |
| Beelink EQ14 (N150, 16 GB, 500 GB) | Amazon | $219.00 (est.) | Street estimate $190-230; official store lists higher |
| Beelink SER8 (Ryzen 7 8745HS, 32 GB, 1 TB) | bee-link.com | $889.00 | bee-link.com/products/beelink-ser8-8745hs |
| Beelink GTi15 Ultra (Core Ultra 9 285H, 64 GB, 1 TB) | bee-link.com | $1,499.00 | bee-link.com/products/beelink-gti15-ultra9-285h (growth) |
| Beelink EX Pro Docking Station | bee-link.com | $179.00 | bee-link.com/products/beelink-ex-docking-station (growth) |
| Crucial DDR5-5600 2 x 32 GB SODIMM | Amazon | $719.99 (est.) | 2026 shortage price; historical norm ~$258 (growth) |
| GL.iNet GL-MT6000 Flint 2 | gl-inet.com | $169.99 | gl-inet.com/en-us/products/gl-mt6000 |
| TP-Link TL-SG108E 8-port smart switch | Amazon | $22.99 (est.) | Volatile SKU; snapshot ~$19.82 |
| APC BE600M1 UPS (600 VA) | Newegg | $95.99 | newegg.com (APC BE600M1) |
| 4 TB external HDD (cold archive) | Amazon | $99.00 (est.) | Seagate/WD class; HDD chosen over SSD in the NAND shortage |
| Residential proxy (rotating, PAYG) | Decodo / Bright Data | $60.00/mo (est.) | ~$4/GB, ~15 GB/mo |
| Datacenter proxy pool (1,000) | Webshare | $26.91/mo | webshare.io/pricing (Small) |
| LLM API generation | Anthropic Claude Haiku 4.5 | $100.00/mo (est.) | $1/$5 per MTok (batch $0.50/$2.50); ~60 MTok/mo |
END OF REPORT
Model wiring
Generated from cell frontmatter at publish time.